Panetolikos 1-2 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Panetolikos at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Panetolikos vs Levadiakos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Panetolikou plays host to Panetolikos versus Levadiakos in Super League 1, Relegation Round - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 29 March 2025 at 18:30 UTC.
Current Form
Panetolikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panetolikos's home record at Stadio Panetolikou: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Levadiakos (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Levadiakos have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Panetolikos 0W, Levadiakos 0W, 5D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.2 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Panetolikos — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Levadiakos — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 27% versus Levadiakos 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Panetolikos 19% | Levadiakos 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 0.90 xG and Levadiakos 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.768 / defence 0.802 | Levadiakos attack 0.945 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.094. Panetolikos's attack strength of 0.768 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 52 Panetolikos games / 26 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 35% | Draw 34% | Levadiakos 31%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 2.86 | Draw 2.94 | Levadiakos 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.73. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.73 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Levadiakos's lower xG of 0.83 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Panetolikos at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Panetolikos if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.73 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 25% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates corroborate: Panetolikos 20% | Levadiakos 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: Stadio Panetolikou • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Mar 2025, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 35% | Draw 34% | Levadiakos 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 33% | xG Panetolikos 0.90 / Levadiakos 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.768 / def 0.802 | Levadiakos attack 0.945 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.094 • Poisson stance: Panetolikos (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Levadiakos xG
33%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panetolikos vs Levadiakos kick off?
Panetolikos vs Levadiakos kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 29 March 2025 at Stadio Panetolikou.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs Levadiakos?
Panetolikos 1 - 2 Levadiakos.
Where is Panetolikos vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Panetolikou.
What competition is Panetolikos vs Levadiakos part of?
Panetolikos vs Levadiakos is a Relegation Round - 1 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 35% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 31% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Panetolikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Panetolikos and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will Panetolikos vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Levadiakos?
Record (5 meetings): Panetolikos 0W | Draws 5 | Levadiakos 0W.
What form are Panetolikos and Levadiakos in?
Panetolikos (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Levadiakos (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Panetolikos's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Levadiakos's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. Flip it around — Levadiakos's attack (0.94x) against Panetolikos's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 52/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panetolikos Win
35%
2.85
34%
2.97
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
1.73
0.83
Levadiakos xG
2.85
35%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.00
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
15%
6.53
13%
7.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.8 | 14.7 | 6.1 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.2 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.5%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Panetolikos and 0.83 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 1.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs Levadiakos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Panetolikos's recent record stands at 9W 6D 11L from 26 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Levadiakos, meanwhile, have gone 6W 10D 10L across 26 games — 1.08 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Panetolikos against 1.08 for Levadiakos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Panetolikos have managed 5W 2D 6L from 13 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Levadiakos's away record stands at 3W 6D 4L across 13 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Panetolikos are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 1.15 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Panetolikos have seen both teams score in 27% of their recent games.
Defensively: Panetolikos have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Blended
Levadiakos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panetolikos and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 9W 6D 11L in their last 26 games (1.27 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 6W 10D 10L in their last 26 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or Levadiakos away?
Panetolikos's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 1.31 PPG; Levadiakos away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Panetolikos or Levadiakos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panetolikos have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Levadiakos in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Levadiakos won 6-0 on 5 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panetolikos have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Panetolikos
5
Draws
3
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Levadiakos?
From 10 meetings on record, Panetolikos have won 2, Levadiakos have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Levadiakos 0-2 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and Levadiakos?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Panetolikos see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panetolikos 23%, Levadiakos 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 23% for Panetolikos and 46% for Levadiakos.
On the defensive side: Panetolikos keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Panetolikos have failed to score in 46% of games; Levadiakos in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panetolikos play Levadiakos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 23% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 62% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panetolikos vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Panetolikos's recent games and 46% of Levadiakos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panetolikos and Levadiakos tend to score early?
Panetolikos have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Levadiakos defy the odds to beat Panetolikos 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levadiakos beat Panetolikos 1-2 at Stadio Panetolikou, Relegation Round - 1, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 0.90 xG and Levadiakos 0.83 xG, a combined 1.73. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Levadiakos outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.77 / defence 0.80 against Levadiakos attack 0.94 / defence 0.92, drawn from 52/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 35% | Draw 34% | Levadiakos 31%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Levadiakos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 19%, Levadiakos 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Levadiakos's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panetolikos 1.27 PPG, Levadiakos 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Levadiakos win broke the near-deadlock. Panetolikos (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.