Panathinaikos 1-1 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Panathinaikos take on PAOK.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis plays host to Panathinaikos versus PAOK in Super League 1, Championship Round - 8. Kick-off: Wednesday 3 May 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Panathinaikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.10 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 9 clean sheets from 10 games (90%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Panathinaikos's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
PAOK have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, PAOK have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Panathinaikos's favour (2.20 vs 1.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Panathinaikos — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time.
PAOK — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panathinaikos 28% versus PAOK 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Panathinaikos 30% | PAOK 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panathinaikos 1.01 xG and PAOK 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panathinaikos attack 1.086 / defence 0.817 | PAOK attack 1.186 / defence 0.746. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.000. PAOK's defence strength of 0.746 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 52 Panathinaikos games / 52 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panathinaikos 31% | Draw 39% | PAOK 29%. Fair-value odds: Panathinaikos 3.23 | Draw 2.56 | PAOK 3.45. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.98 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Panathinaikos 20% | PAOK 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panathinaikos vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 8 | Venue: Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panathinaikos 31% | Draw 39% | PAOK 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 43% | xG Panathinaikos 1.01 / PAOK 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Panathinaikos attack 1.086 / def 0.817 | PAOK attack 1.186 / def 0.746 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.000 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Panathinaikos xG
Expected Goals
0.97
PAOK xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panathinaikos vs PAOK kick off?
Panathinaikos vs PAOK kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 3 May 2023 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What was the final score in Panathinaikos vs PAOK?
Panathinaikos 1 - 1 PAOK.
Where is Panathinaikos vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What competition is Panathinaikos vs PAOK part of?
Panathinaikos vs PAOK is a Championship Round - 8 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panathinaikos vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Panathinaikos a 31% chance of winning, PAOK a 29% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Panathinaikos vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Panathinaikos and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will Panathinaikos vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and PAOK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Panathinaikos and PAOK in?
Panathinaikos (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. PAOK (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Panathinaikos's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against PAOK's defensive record (0.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. Flip it around — PAOK's attack (1.19x) against Panathinaikos's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.18
39%
2.55
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Panathinaikos xG
Total xG
1.98
0.97
PAOK xG
3.18
31%
Home win
2.55
39%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
12%
8.38
11%
9.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 13.4 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panathinaikos vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Panathinaikos and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Panathinaikos and 0.97 for PAOK, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Panathinaikos vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 69 outings, Panathinaikos have picked up 1.99 PPG on a 41W 14D 14L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
PAOK's form line: 37W 16D 16L from 69 games, 1.84 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.99 PPG for Panathinaikos against 1.84 for PAOK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Panathinaikos have posted 2.32 PPG from 34 outings (24W 7D 3L).
On the road, PAOK have gone 16W 9D 9L from 34 away games — 1.68 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panathinaikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Panathinaikos are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 1.62 scored and 0.91 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Panathinaikos have seen both teams score in 28% of their recent games.
Defensively: Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 59% of their games; PAOK in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panathinaikos
Current Season
PAOK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panathinaikos and PAOK in coming into this match?
Panathinaikos have gone 41W 14D 14L in their last 69 games (1.99 PPG), while PAOK have gone 37W 16D 16L in their last 69 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panathinaikos at home or PAOK away?
Panathinaikos's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panathinaikos at home: 2.32 PPG; PAOK away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Panathinaikos or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 59% of their recent games, PAOK in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAOK won 4-1 on 15 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panathinaikos have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against PAOK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Panathinaikos
3
Draws
4
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and PAOK?
From 10 meetings on record, Panathinaikos have won 3, PAOK have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Panathinaikos and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Panathinaikos 2-2 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between Panathinaikos and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Panathinaikos see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 24% (Panathinaikos) and 44% (PAOK) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Panathinaikos) and 47% (PAOK).
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos keep a clean sheet in 71% of their matches; PAOK in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panathinaikos home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panathinaikos play PAOK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 24% of Panathinaikos's recent matches and 44% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panathinaikos vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Panathinaikos's recent games and 47% of PAOK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panathinaikos and PAOK tend to score early?
Panathinaikos have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, PAOK in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Panathinaikos and PAOK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Championship Round - 8, as Panathinaikos and PAOK drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panathinaikos 1.01 xG and PAOK 0.97 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panathinaikos attack 1.09 / defence 0.82 against PAOK attack 1.19 / defence 0.75, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panathinaikos 31% | Draw 39% | PAOK 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panathinaikos 30%, PAOK 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panathinaikos's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time, and conceded here.
PAOK's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panathinaikos 1.99 PPG, PAOK 1.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.