Panathinaikos 2-0 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Panathinaikos at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis meet at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 28 February 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Panathinaikos (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Panathinaikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panathinaikos's home record at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
Aris Thessalonikis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aris Thessalonikis's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.10 PPG for Panathinaikos against 1.80 for Aris Thessalonikis. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Panathinaikos lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2023, ended 0–2 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Panathinaikos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panathinaikos 35% versus Aris Thessalonikis 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panathinaikos 38% | Aris Thessalonikis 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panathinaikos 1.30 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panathinaikos attack 1.184 / defence 0.716 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.944 / defence 0.691. League average goals — home 1.594 / away 1.356. Aris Thessalonikis's defence strength of 0.691 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Panathinaikos's defence rating of 0.716 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 Panathinaikos games / 50 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panathinaikos 43% | Draw 33% | Aris Thessalonikis 24%. Fair-value odds: Panathinaikos 2.33 | Draw 3.03 | Aris Thessalonikis 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Panathinaikos as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Panathinaikos if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Panathinaikos 40% | Aris Thessalonikis 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Feb 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panathinaikos 43% | Draw 33% | Aris Thessalonikis 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Panathinaikos 1.30 / Aris Thessalonikis 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Panathinaikos attack 1.184 / def 0.716 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.944 / def 0.691 | league avg home 1.594 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Panathinaikos xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Aris Thessalonikis xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 28 February 2024 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What was the final score in Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Panathinaikos 2 - 0 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What competition is Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives Panathinaikos a 43% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 24% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis?
Record (3 meetings): Panathinaikos 1W | Draws 1 | Aris Thessalonikis 1W.
What form are Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis in?
Panathinaikos (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Panathinaikos's attack rating (1.18) and Aris Thessalonikis's defence rating (0.69), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Aris Thessalonikis's attack (0.94x) against Panathinaikos's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
43%
2.31
33%
3.05
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Panathinaikos xG
Total xG
2.22
0.92
Aris Thessalonikis xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
17%
5.78
6%
15.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.0 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Panathinaikos and 0.92 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, Panathinaikos have picked up 2.13 PPG on a 38W 14D 8L record — L-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Panathinaikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aris Thessalonikis's form line: 27W 11D 22L from 60 games, 1.53 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-W. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Panathinaikos are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Aris Thessalonikis.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Panathinaikos have posted 2.20 PPG from 30 outings (19W 9D 2L).
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 8W 7D 15L from 30 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.53 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Aris Thessalonikis's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panathinaikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Panathinaikos are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.52 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their games; Aris Thessalonikis in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panathinaikos
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
Panathinaikos have gone 38W 14D 8L in their last 60 games (2.13 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 27W 11D 22L in their last 60 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panathinaikos at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
Panathinaikos's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panathinaikos at home: 2.20 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Panathinaikos or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panathinaikos have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Aris Thessalonikis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Panathinaikos
3
Draws
3
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, Panathinaikos have won 4, Aris Thessalonikis have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Panathinaikos 3-1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Panathinaikos) and 37% (Aris Thessalonikis) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Panathinaikos) and 43% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos keep a clean sheet in 63% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis in 37%; Aris Thessalonikis in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panathinaikos home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panathinaikos play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Panathinaikos's recent matches and 37% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Panathinaikos's recent games and 43% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
Panathinaikos have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Panathinaikos cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Aris Thessalonikis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos beat Aris Thessalonikis 2-0 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panathinaikos 1.30 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.92 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panathinaikos attack 1.18 / defence 0.72 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.94 / defence 0.69, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panathinaikos 43% | Draw 33% | Aris Thessalonikis 24%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panathinaikos 38%, Aris Thessalonikis 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panathinaikos's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and duly kept one.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Panathinaikos arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.53. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.