Olympiakos Piraeus 2-0 PAS Giannina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus host PAS Giannina at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki in Super League 1, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 23 January 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.60 PPG return. Last five: W W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki: 6W 2D 0L from 8 Super League 1 appearances (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 0.38 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 8 home games (62%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
Looking at all fixtures this season, PAS Giannina stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for PAS Giannina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAS Giannina's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 2L across 8 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game. 4 away clean sheets from 8 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Olympiakos Piraeus have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 1.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Olympiakos Piraeus, 0 for PAS Giannina and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Olympiakos Piraeus in-play tendencies (17 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
PAS Giannina in-play tendencies (17 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 47% versus PAS Giannina 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 53% | PAS Giannina 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 0.95 xG and PAS Giannina 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.000 / defence 0.835 | PAS Giannina attack 0.853 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 0.961 / away 1.172. Data: 17 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 18 PAS Giannina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 37% | Draw 33% | PAS Giannina 30%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | PAS Giannina 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — PAS Giannina's lower xG of 0.83 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Olympiakos Piraeus are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.78 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 38% | PAS Giannina 25% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Jan 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 37% | Draw 33% | PAS Giannina 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 0.95 / PAS Giannina 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.000 / def 0.835 | PAS Giannina attack 0.853 / def 0.987 | league avg home 0.961 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.83
PAS Giannina xG
35%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 23 January 2022 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina?
Olympiakos Piraeus 2 - 0 PAS Giannina.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 37% chance of winning, PAS Giannina a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and PAS Giannina will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and PAS Giannina?
Record (1 meetings): Olympiakos Piraeus 1W | Draws 0 | PAS Giannina 0W.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and PAS Giannina in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. PAS Giannina (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Olympiakos Piraeus's attack rating (1.00) and PAS Giannina's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PAS Giannina's attack versus Olympiakos Piraeus's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
37%
2.73
33%
3.03
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
1.78
0.83
PAS Giannina xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.88
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
16%
6.30
12%
8.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.8 | 14.0 | 5.9 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.9 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.5%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and PAS Giannina expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.83 for PAS Giannina, a combined total of 1.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Olympiakos Piraeus's recent record stands at 13W 4D 0L from 17 games, a 2.53 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAS Giannina, meanwhile, have gone 6W 6D 5L across 17 games — 1.41 PPG, with L-L-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for PAS Giannina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Olympiakos Piraeus by 1.12 — a real, if not enormous, edge over PAS Giannina heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Olympiakos Piraeus have managed 6W 1D 0L from 7 games — 2.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAS Giannina's away record stands at 2W 3D 2L across 7 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 0.53 conceded per game recently; PAS Giannina are on 1.24 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their games; PAS Giannina in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
PAS Giannina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and PAS Giannina in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 13W 4D 0L in their last 17 games (2.53 PPG), while PAS Giannina have gone 6W 6D 5L in their last 17 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or PAS Giannina away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.71 PPG; PAS Giannina away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or PAS Giannina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their recent games, PAS Giannina in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Olympiakos Piraeus and PAS Giannina runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Olympiakos Piraeus go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2023, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Olympiakos Piraeus's record when hosting PAS Giannina specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Olympiakos Piraeus
2
Draws
0
PAS Giannina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and PAS Giannina?
From 8 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 6, PAS Giannina have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and PAS Giannina last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2024, when Olympiakos Piraeus 3-1 PAS Giannina.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and PAS Giannina?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
PAS Giannina tend to start slowly — only 29% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 43%, PAS Giannina 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 43% for Olympiakos Piraeus and 14% for PAS Giannina.
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; PAS Giannina in 43%; PAS Giannina in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / PAS Giannina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play PAS Giannina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 29% of PAS Giannina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 14% of PAS Giannina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and PAS Giannina tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, PAS Giannina in 29% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Olympiakos Piraeus cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over PAS Giannina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat PAS Giannina 2-0 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 0.95 xG and PAS Giannina 0.83 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PAS Giannina landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.00 / defence 0.83 against PAS Giannina attack 0.85 / defence 0.99, drawn from 17/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 37% | Draw 33% | PAS Giannina 30%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 53%, PAS Giannina 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (17 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and duly kept one.
PAS Giannina's trading profile (17 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.53 PPG against 1.41. Form held, and they took the win. PAS Giannina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.