Olympiakos Piraeus 3-1 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki plays host to Olympiakos Piraeus versus PAOK in Super League 1, Championship Round - 3. Kick-off: Wednesday 5 April 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Olympiakos Piraeus's overall Super League 1 record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
PAOK have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, PAOK have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.20 for Olympiakos Piraeus, 2.10 for PAOK — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Olympiakos Piraeus half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
PAOK half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 50% versus PAOK 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 50% | PAOK 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.46 xG and PAOK 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.652 / defence 0.722 | PAOK attack 1.211 / defence 0.711. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 0.998. Olympiakos Piraeus carry an above-average attack strength of 1.652 — their λ of 1.46 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. PAOK's defence strength of 0.711 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. PAOK have an above-average attack strength of 1.211 — the away xG of 0.87 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating of 0.722 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 52 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 47% | Draw 34% | PAOK 19%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 2.13 | Draw 2.94 | PAOK 5.26. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 40% | PAOK 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 3 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Wednesday 5 Apr 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 47% | Draw 34% | PAOK 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.46 / PAOK 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.652 / def 0.722 | PAOK attack 1.211 / def 0.711 | league avg home 1.246 / away 0.998 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.87
PAOK xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 5 April 2023 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Olympiakos Piraeus 3 - 1 PAOK.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK is a Championship Round - 3 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 47% chance of winning, PAOK a 19% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. PAOK (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Olympiakos Piraeus's attack rating (1.65) and PAOK's defence rating (0.71), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PAOK's attack (1.21x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
47%
2.11
34%
2.94
19%
5.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.33
0.87
PAOK xG
2.11
47%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
5.34
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
20%
5.06
4%
23.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.4 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.0 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.87 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Olympiakos Piraeus's recent record stands at 42W 17D 5L from 64 games, a 2.23 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-D in the last five.
PAOK, meanwhile, have gone 35W 16D 13L across 64 games — 1.89 PPG, with D-W-W-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.23 PPG for Olympiakos Piraeus against 1.89 for PAOK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Olympiakos Piraeus have managed 22W 8D 2L from 32 games — 2.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAOK's away record stands at 16W 9D 7L across 32 trips, a 1.78 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 0.66 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 1.61 scored and 0.78 conceded. Olympiakos Piraeus's scoring rate against PAOK's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games; PAOK in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Current Season
PAOK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 42W 17D 5L in their last 64 games (2.23 PPG), while PAOK have gone 35W 16D 13L in their last 64 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or PAOK away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.31 PPG; PAOK away: 1.78 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, PAOK in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against PAOK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Olympiakos Piraeus
2
Draws
4
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 4, PAOK have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-1 PAOK.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 50%, PAOK 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 44% (PAOK).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; PAOK in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play PAOK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 44% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 44% of PAOK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, PAOK in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Olympiakos Piraeus cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over PAOK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat PAOK 3-1 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Championship Round - 3, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.46 xG and PAOK 0.87 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.65 / defence 0.72 against PAOK attack 1.21 / defence 0.71, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 47% | Draw 34% | PAOK 19%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 50%, PAOK 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
PAOK's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Olympiakos Piraeus 2.23 PPG, PAOK 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Olympiakos Piraeus win broke the near-deadlock. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.03 average — above their attacking norm. PAOK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.