Olympiakos Piraeus 4-0 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Olympiakos Piraeus face Atromitos.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Atromitos travel to Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki to take on Olympiakos Piraeus. The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 August 2023, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Olympiakos Piraeus stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Olympiakos Piraeus have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Olympiakos Piraeus are significantly better at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Atromitos have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Atromitos haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Atromitos away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Olympiakos Piraeus carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Olympiakos Piraeus, 0 for Atromitos and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Olympiakos Piraeus in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.
Atromitos in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 39% versus Atromitos 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Olympiakos Piraeus 52% | Atromitos 24%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.76 xG and Atromitos 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.164 / defence 0.862 | Atromitos attack 1.009 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.533 / away 0.787. Data: 27 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 26 Atromitos games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 61% | Draw 28% | Atromitos 12%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.64 | Draw 3.57 | Atromitos 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (61%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. This conflicts with form data: Olympiakos Piraeus 50% | Atromitos 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Aug 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 61% | Draw 28% | Atromitos 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 44% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.76 / Atromitos 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.164 / def 0.862 | Atromitos attack 1.009 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.533 / away 0.787 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Atromitos xG
44%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 27 August 2023 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos?
Olympiakos Piraeus 4 - 0 Atromitos.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 61% chance of winning, Atromitos a 12% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Atromitos will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Atromitos?
Record (4 meetings): Olympiakos Piraeus 2W | Draws 2 | Atromitos 0W.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Atromitos in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Atromitos (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Olympiakos Piraeus's attack at 1.16x the league average against Atromitos's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atromitos's attack versus Olympiakos Piraeus's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (27/26 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.4%), 1-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
61%
1.65
28%
3.60
12%
8.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.44
0.69
Atromitos xG
1.65
61%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
8.65
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
50%
1.98
17%
5.80
Win to Nil
31%
3.27
2%
50.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 10.5 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.4 | 9.2 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.69 for Atromitos, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Olympiakos Piraeus's recent record stands at 20W 8D 5L from 33 games, a 2.06 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Atromitos, meanwhile, have gone 9W 11D 13L across 33 games — 1.15 PPG, with D-L-L-W-D in their last five. Atromitos haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Olympiakos Piraeus by 0.91 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Atromitos heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Olympiakos Piraeus have managed 11W 3D 2L from 16 games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atromitos's away record stands at 2W 5D 9L across 16 trips, a 0.69 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Atromitos's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 1.03 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Early Season
Atromitos
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Atromitos in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 20W 8D 5L in their last 33 games (2.06 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 9W 11D 13L in their last 33 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or Atromitos away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.25 PPG; Atromitos away: 0.69 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Atromitos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their recent games, Atromitos in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Olympiakos Piraeus have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2023, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Olympiakos Piraeus's record when hosting Atromitos specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Olympiakos Piraeus
3
Draws
0
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Atromitos?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 7, Atromitos have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and Atromitos last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when Atromitos 0-2 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Atromitos?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 38%, Atromitos 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 31% (Atromitos).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Atromitos in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play Atromitos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 62% of Atromitos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 31% of Atromitos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Atromitos tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Atromitos in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Olympiakos Piraeus run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Atromitos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Atromitos 4-0 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.76 xG and Atromitos 0.69 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.16 / defence 0.86 against Atromitos attack 1.01 / defence 0.98, drawn from 27/26 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 61% | Draw 28% | Atromitos 12%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 52%, Atromitos 24%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and duly kept one.
Atromitos's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.44 average — above their attacking norm. Atromitos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.