OFI 0-0 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Volos NFC at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this OFI vs Volos NFC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Volos NFC make the trip to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis to face OFI in Super League 1, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Tuesday 3 January 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
OFI's overall Super League 1 record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OFI at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Volos NFC (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Volos NFC have gone 3W 6D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Volos NFC are 1.00 PPG clear of OFI in recent Super League 1 fixtures (1.70 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
OFI half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Volos NFC half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 54% versus Volos NFC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 48% | Volos NFC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 0.91 xG and Volos NFC 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 0.752 / defence 1.144 | Volos NFC attack 1.079 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.227 / away 1.048. OFI's attack strength of 0.752 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 41 OFI games / 41 Volos NFC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 22% | Draw 36% | Volos NFC 41%. Fair-value odds: OFI 4.55 | Draw 2.78 | Volos NFC 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Volos NFC at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Volos NFC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: OFI 40% | Volos NFC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Tuesday 3 Jan 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 22% | Draw 36% | Volos NFC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 47% | xG OFI 0.91 / Volos NFC 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 0.752 / def 1.144 | Volos NFC attack 1.079 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.227 / away 1.048 • Poisson stance: Volos NFC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Volos NFC xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Volos NFC kick off?
OFI vs Volos NFC kicked off at 14:30 on Tuesday 3 January 2023 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Volos NFC?
OFI 0 - 0 Volos NFC.
Where is OFI vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Volos NFC part of?
OFI vs Volos NFC is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 22% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 41% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Volos NFC the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both OFI and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Volos NFC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are OFI and Volos NFC in?
OFI (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Volos NFC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates OFI's attack at 0.75x the league average against Volos NFC's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Volos NFC's attack (1.08x) against OFI's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Volos NFC Win
22%
4.47
36%
2.76
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
OFI xG
Total xG
2.21
1.29
Volos NFC xG
4.47
22%
Home win
2.76
36%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
6%
16.30
17%
6.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 14.3 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are OFI and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for OFI and 1.29 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Volos NFC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, OFI have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 13W 16D 19L record — L-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Volos NFC's form line: 17W 14D 17L from 48 games, 1.35 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-L. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for OFI against 1.35 for Volos NFC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, OFI have posted 1.13 PPG from 23 outings (7W 5D 11L).
On the road, Volos NFC have gone 6W 10D 7L from 23 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
OFI are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 1.42 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Blended
Volos NFC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 13W 16D 19L in their last 48 games (1.15 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 17W 14D 17L in their last 48 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Volos NFC away?
Volos NFC's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.13 PPG; Volos NFC away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: OFI won 4-0 on 23 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, OFI have gone 3W 2D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Volos NFC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
OFI
4
Draws
2
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Volos NFC?
From 10 meetings on record, OFI have won 4, Volos NFC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when OFI 3-1 Volos NFC.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Volos NFC?
OFI have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 61%, Volos NFC 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (OFI) and 56% (Volos NFC).
On the defensive side: OFI have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Volos NFC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of OFI's games and 65% of Volos NFC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is OFI vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of OFI's recent games and 56% of Volos NFC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Volos NFC tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Volos NFC in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at OFI's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OFI and Volos NFC finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 0.91 xG and Volos NFC 1.29 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. OFI fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Volos NFC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 0.75 / defence 1.14 against Volos NFC attack 1.08 / defence 0.99, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 22% | Draw 36% | Volos NFC 41%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 48%, Volos NFC 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Volos NFC's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OFI 1.15 PPG, Volos NFC 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Volos NFC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.