OFI 1-2 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as OFI take on Olympiakos Piraeus.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Olympiakos Piraeus travel to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis to take on OFI. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 October 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, OFI have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. OFI have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, OFI have posted 4W 1D 5L at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — OFI are significantly better at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Olympiakos Piraeus stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Olympiakos Piraeus have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Olympiakos Piraeus's 1.80 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of OFI's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for OFI, 2 for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2022, ended 0–2 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
OFI in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Olympiakos Piraeus in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 54% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 49% | Olympiakos Piraeus 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.09 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 0.913 / defence 1.143 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.960 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.285 / away 1.025. Data: 32 OFI games / 32 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 32% | Draw 35% | Olympiakos Piraeus 33%. Fair-value odds: OFI 3.12 | Draw 2.86 | Olympiakos Piraeus 3.03. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: OFI 60% | Olympiakos Piraeus 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 32% | Draw 35% | Olympiakos Piraeus 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 48% | xG OFI 1.09 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 0.913 / def 1.143 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.960 / def 0.929 | league avg home 1.285 / away 1.025 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
OFI 1 - 2 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 32% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 33% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (2 meetings): OFI 0W | Draws 0 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2W.
What form are OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
OFI (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from OFI's attack rating (0.91) and Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Olympiakos Piraeus's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.15
35%
2.88
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
OFI xG
Total xG
2.21
1.12
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
3.15
32%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
10%
9.69
11%
8.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 12.3 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for OFI and 1.12 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 39 outings, OFI have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 12W 12D 15L record — L-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for OFI, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form line: 26W 9D 4L from 39 games, 2.23 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Olympiakos Piraeus are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against OFI.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, OFI have posted 1.21 PPG from 19 outings (6W 5D 8L).
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 11W 5D 3L from 19 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
OFI are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 1.67 scored and 0.72 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Early Season
Olympiakos Piraeus
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 12W 12D 15L in their last 39 games (1.23 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 26W 9D 4L in their last 39 (2.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.21 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 2.00 PPG.
Have OFI or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Olympiakos Piraeus have won the last 10 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Feb 2024, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OFI's record when hosting Olympiakos Piraeus specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
OFI
0
Draws
10
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, OFI have won 0, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 10, and 0 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when OFI 0-3 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 63%, Olympiakos Piraeus 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (OFI) and 53% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of OFI's games and 53% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of OFI's recent games and 53% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Olympiakos Piraeus edge out OFI 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat OFI 1-2 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.09 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.12 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 0.91 / defence 1.14 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.96 / defence 0.93, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 32% | Draw 35% | Olympiakos Piraeus 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Olympiakos Piraeus win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 49%, Olympiakos Piraeus 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.