Levadiakos vs OFI – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Levadiakos at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levadiakos vs OFI fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees OFI travel to Levadia Stadium to take on Levadiakos. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 January 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Levadiakos stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Levadiakos's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Levadia Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Levadiakos are significantly better at Levadia Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, OFI have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. OFI have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, OFI have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Levadiakos 1.30 PPG, OFI 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Levadiakos register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, OFI in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Levadiakos, 3 for OFI and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2026, ended 3–2 with Levadiakos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Levadiakos trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
OFI trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 53% versus OFI 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Levadiakos 65% | OFI 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.47 xG and OFI 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.894 / defence 1.136 | OFI attack 1.029 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 0.997. Data: 28 Levadiakos games / 28 OFI games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 42% | Draw 30% | OFI 28%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | OFI 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Levadiakos are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Levadiakos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Levadiakos 60% | OFI 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Levadia Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Jan 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 42% | Draw 30% | OFI 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Levadiakos 1.47 / OFI 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.894 / def 1.136 | OFI attack 1.029 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.474 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: Levadiakos (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
1.17
OFI xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs OFI kick off?
Levadiakos vs OFI is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 9 January 2027 at Levadia Stadium.
Where is Levadiakos vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Levadia Stadium.
What competition is Levadiakos vs OFI part of?
Levadiakos vs OFI is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 42% chance of winning, OFI a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Levadiakos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Levadiakos and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and OFI?
Record (9 meetings): Levadiakos 3W | Draws 3 | OFI 3W.
What form are Levadiakos and OFI in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. OFI (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Levadiakos's attack rating (0.89) and OFI's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus Levadiakos's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (28/28 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Levadiakos Win
42%
2.38
30%
3.36
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.63
1.17
OFI xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
13%
7.63
6%
15.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.3 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Levadiakos and 1.17 for OFI, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Levadiakos come into this having played 34 games, going 15W 7D 12L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Levadiakos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, OFI sit at 1.24 PPG from 34 outings (13W 3D 18L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for OFI, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Levadiakos on 1.53 PPG, OFI on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Levadiakos's home form reads 10W 3D 4L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.94 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Levadiakos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, OFI have taken 0.88 points per game from 17 outings (4W 3D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Levadiakos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Levadiakos are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.35 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Early Season
OFI
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and OFI in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 15W 7D 12L in their last 34 games (1.53 PPG), while OFI have gone 13W 3D 18L in their last 34 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or OFI away?
Levadiakos's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 1.94 PPG; OFI away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Sep 2025, when Levadiakos won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Levadiakos's record when hosting OFI specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Levadiakos
3
Draws
3
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and OFI?
From 9 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 3, OFI have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Levadiakos 3-2 OFI.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 59%, OFI 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Levadiakos and 76% for OFI. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play OFI?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Levadiakos's games and 65% of OFI's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Levadiakos vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Levadiakos's matches and 76% of OFI's.
Do Levadiakos and OFI tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, OFI in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.