Levadiakos 4-1 Kallithea – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Levadiakos at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Levadiakos vs Kallithea encounter.

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Analysis

Kallithea make the trip to Stadio Levadias to face Levadiakos in Super League 1 (Relegation Round - 7). The match kicks off on Saturday 10 May 2025 at 16:00 UK time.

Form

Levadiakos (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

At home, Levadiakos have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.00 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Kallithea's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Kallithea away from home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Form favours the hosts. Levadiakos's 2.00 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Kallithea's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Levadiakos, 0 for Kallithea and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 23 Apr 2025, ended Levadiakos 3–0 Kallithea — a Levadiakos win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Levadiakos half-time and goal-timing data (last 32 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Kallithea half-time and goal-timing data (last 32 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 53% versus Kallithea 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 50% | Kallithea 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.38 xG and Kallithea 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.923 / defence 1.181 | Kallithea attack 0.773 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.093. Kallithea's attack rating of 0.773 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.00. Data: built from Levadiakos's last 26 games and Kallithea's last 26.

Result probabilities: Levadiakos 46% | Draw 27% | Kallithea 27%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 2.19 | Draw 3.68 | Kallithea 3.68. Levadiakos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Levadiakos at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Levadiakos if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Levadiakos 50% (last 10 home games) | Kallithea 40% (last 10 away games).

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