Levadiakos 0-0 Kallithea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Levadiakos at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Levadiakos face Kallithea.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kallithea make the trip to Stadio Levadias to face Levadiakos in Super League 1 (matchday 1). The match kicks off on Sunday 18 August 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.63 xG and Kallithea 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Kallithea attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.671 / away 1.456. Data: built from Levadiakos's last 0 games and Kallithea's last 0. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 41% | Draw 27% | Kallithea 32%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 2.44 | Draw 3.69 | Kallithea 3.14. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.63 / 1.42) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Levadiakos at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Levadiakos if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Levadiakos 0 games, Kallithea 0) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs Kallithea | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 1 | Venue: Stadio Levadias • Kick-off: Sunday 18 August 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 41% | Draw 27% | Kallithea 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Levadiakos 1.63 / Kallithea 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Kallithea attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.671 / away 1.456 • Poisson stance: Levadiakos (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Kallithea xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Levadiakos vs Kallithea FAQs
What time does Levadiakos vs Kallithea kick off?
Levadiakos vs Kallithea kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 18 August 2024 at Stadio Levadias.
What was the final score in Levadiakos vs Kallithea?
Levadiakos 0 - 0 Kallithea.
Where is Levadiakos vs Kallithea being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Levadias.
What competition is Levadiakos vs Kallithea part of?
Levadiakos vs Kallithea is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 1) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs Kallithea?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 41% chance of winning, Kallithea a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Levadiakos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs Kallithea?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Levadiakos and Kallithea will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Levadiakos vs Kallithea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Levadiakos's attack at 0.85x the league average against Kallithea's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kallithea's attack (0.85x) against Levadiakos's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from Levadiakos's last 0 games and Kallithea's last 0, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Levadiakos Win
41%
2.44
27%
3.69
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
3.06
1.42
Kallithea xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
20%
5.12
Win to Nil
10%
10.11
6%
16.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.9 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Levadiakos vs Kallithea Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs Kallithea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and Kallithea expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Levadiakos and 1.42 for Kallithea, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs Kallithea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Pre-Season
Kallithea
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Levadiakos (Home) vs Kallithea (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Levadiakos
Pre-Season
Kallithea
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Levadiakos and Kallithea, the earliest from August 2024. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent in our data was on 10 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Levadiakos have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Levadiakos won Kallithea 0-3 Levadiakos on 23 Apr 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Levadiakos have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Kallithea — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Levadiakos
1
Draws
0
Kallithea
Recent Meetings
❓ Levadiakos vs Kallithea H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Kallithea?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Levadiakos have won 3, Kallithea have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and Kallithea last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 May 2025: Levadiakos 4-1 Kallithea.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and Kallithea?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / Kallithea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Levadiakos's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Levadias, Regular Season - 1, as Levadiakos and Kallithea drew 0-0 in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 1.63 xG and Kallithea 1.42 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Levadiakos fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Kallithea landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Kallithea attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 41% | Draw 27% | Kallithea 32%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.