Larisa 2-2 Panathinaikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Panathinaikos at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Larisa vs Panathinaikos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
AEL FC Arena plays host to Larisa versus Panathinaikos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 7 December 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Larisa have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Larisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Larisa's home record at AEL FC Arena: 0W 2D 4L from 6 Super League 1 appearances (0.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Panathinaikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Panathinaikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panathinaikos away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Panathinaikos are 1.10 PPG clear of Larisa in recent Super League 1 fixtures (1.70 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Larisa have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Panathinaikos in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Larisa half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Panathinaikos half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Larisa 58% versus Panathinaikos 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Larisa 42% | Panathinaikos 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Larisa 0.91 xG and Panathinaikos 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Larisa attack 0.699 / defence 1.438 | Panathinaikos attack 1.073 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.225. Larisa's attack strength of 0.699 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 Larisa games / 37 Panathinaikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Larisa 18% | Draw 22% | Panathinaikos 60%. Fair-value odds: Larisa 5.56 | Draw 4.55 | Panathinaikos 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Panathinaikos (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Panathinaikos as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Larisa 67% | Panathinaikos 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Larisa vs Panathinaikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: AEL FC Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Dec 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Larisa 18% | Draw 22% | Panathinaikos 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 51% | xG Larisa 0.91 / Panathinaikos 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: Larisa attack 0.699 / def 1.438 | Panathinaikos attack 1.073 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Larisa xG
Expected Goals
1.89
Panathinaikos xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Larisa vs Panathinaikos kick off?
Larisa vs Panathinaikos kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 7 December 2025 at AEL FC Arena.
What was the final score in Larisa vs Panathinaikos?
Larisa 2 - 2 Panathinaikos.
Where is Larisa vs Panathinaikos being played?
The match is being played at AEL FC Arena.
What competition is Larisa vs Panathinaikos part of?
Larisa vs Panathinaikos is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Larisa vs Panathinaikos?
Our statistical model gives Larisa a 18% chance of winning, Panathinaikos a 60% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Larisa vs Panathinaikos?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Larisa and Panathinaikos will score (BTTS).
Will Larisa vs Panathinaikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Larisa and Panathinaikos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Larisa and Panathinaikos in?
Larisa (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Panathinaikos (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Larisa's attack at 0.70x the league average against Panathinaikos's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Panathinaikos's attack (1.07x) against Larisa's defence (1.44x) — and the away total comes out at 1.89.
These ratings are built from 12/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (10.8%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
18%
5.66
22%
4.55
60%
1.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
10.8%
Away win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Larisa xG
Total xG
2.80
1.89
Panathinaikos xG
5.66
18%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
1.66
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
15%
6.62
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
3%
37.46
24%
4.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 11.5 | 10.8 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Larisa vs Panathinaikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Larisa and Panathinaikos expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Larisa and 1.89 for Panathinaikos, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Larisa vs Panathinaikos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Larisa come into this having played 12 games, going 1W 4D 7L for 0.58 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Larisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Panathinaikos sit at 1.50 PPG from 12 outings (5W 3D 4L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Panathinaikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Panathinaikos carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.92 PPG clear of Larisa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Larisa's home form reads 0W 1D 4L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Panathinaikos have taken 1.40 points per game from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panathinaikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Larisa are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Panathinaikos are on 1.42 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Larisa
Blended
Panathinaikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Larisa and Panathinaikos in coming into this match?
Larisa have gone 1W 4D 7L in their last 12 games (0.58 PPG), while Panathinaikos have gone 5W 3D 4L in their last 12 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Larisa at home or Panathinaikos away?
Panathinaikos's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Larisa at home: 0.20 PPG; Panathinaikos away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Larisa
2
Draws
0
Panathinaikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Larisa and Panathinaikos?
From 2 meetings on record, Larisa have won 0, Panathinaikos have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Larisa and Panathinaikos last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Panathinaikos 1-1 Larisa.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Larisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Larisa 60%, Panathinaikos 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Larisa) and 60% (Panathinaikos).
On the defensive side: Larisa have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Larisa home games / Panathinaikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Larisa play Panathinaikos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Larisa's games and 60% of Panathinaikos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Larisa vs Panathinaikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Larisa's recent games and 60% of Panathinaikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Larisa and Panathinaikos tend to score early?
Larisa have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Panathinaikos in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Larisa and Panathinaikos share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Larisa and Panathinaikos finished level at 2-2 at AEL FC Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Larisa 0.91 xG and Panathinaikos 1.89 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Larisa beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Larisa attack 0.70 / defence 1.44 against Panathinaikos attack 1.07 / defence 0.93, drawn from 12/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Larisa 18% | Draw 22% | Panathinaikos 60%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Larisa 42%, Panathinaikos 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Larisa's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Panathinaikos's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Panathinaikos arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.58. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Larisa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.