Larisa 1-2 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OFI at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Larisa vs OFI fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees OFI travel to AEL FC Arena to take on Larisa. The game is scheduled for Monday 24 November 2025, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Larisa — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Larisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Larisa at AEL FC Arena this season: 0W 2D 3L from 5 home games — 0.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, OFI stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, OFI have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Larisa 0.70 PPG, OFI 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Larisa in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
OFI in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Larisa 50% versus OFI 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Larisa 30% | OFI 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Larisa 1.36 xG and OFI 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Larisa attack 0.701 / defence 1.387 | OFI attack 0.816 / defence 1.335. League average goals — home 1.450 / away 1.231. Larisa's attack strength of 0.701 is below the league average — the 1.36 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. OFI bring a strong defensive rating of 1.335 — this is suppressing Larisa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Larisa games / 35 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Larisa 36% | Draw 26% | OFI 38%. Fair-value odds: Larisa 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | OFI 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is OFI at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Larisa 60% | OFI 40%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Larisa vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: AEL FC Arena • Kick-off: Monday 24 Nov 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Larisa 36% | Draw 26% | OFI 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Larisa 1.36 / OFI 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Larisa attack 0.701 / def 1.387 | OFI attack 0.816 / def 1.335 | league avg home 1.450 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: OFI (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Larisa xG
Expected Goals
1.39
OFI xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Larisa vs OFI kick off?
Larisa vs OFI kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 24 November 2025 at AEL FC Arena.
What was the final score in Larisa vs OFI?
Larisa 1 - 2 OFI.
Where is Larisa vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at AEL FC Arena.
What competition is Larisa vs OFI part of?
Larisa vs OFI is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Larisa vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Larisa a 36% chance of winning, OFI a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in Larisa vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Larisa and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Larisa vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Larisa and OFI?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Larisa and OFI in?
Larisa (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. OFI (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Larisa's attack rating (0.70) and OFI's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus Larisa's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
36%
2.74
26%
3.92
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Larisa xG
Total xG
2.75
1.39
OFI xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
9%
11.05
10%
10.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.1 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.2 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Larisa vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Larisa and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Larisa and 1.39 for OFI, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Larisa vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Larisa come into this having played 10 games, going 1W 4D 5L for 0.70 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Larisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, OFI sit at 0.70 PPG from 10 outings (2W 1D 7L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Larisa on 0.70 PPG, OFI on 0.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Larisa's home form reads 0W 2D 3L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.40 PPG return.
Away from home, OFI have taken 0.80 points per game from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, OFI come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Larisa are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 0.90 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 10 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Larisa
Blended
OFI
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Larisa and OFI in coming into this match?
Larisa have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 games (0.70 PPG), while OFI have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 (0.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Larisa at home or OFI away?
OFI's away record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Larisa at home: 0.40 PPG; OFI away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Larisa or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
Larisa have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, OFI in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Larisa
0
Draws
2
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Larisa and OFI?
From 2 meetings on record, Larisa have won 0, OFI have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Larisa and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when OFI 3-0 Larisa.
Who has won more matches between Larisa and OFI?
OFI have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Larisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
OFI see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Larisa 60%, OFI 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Larisa) and 60% (OFI).
On the defensive side: OFI in 40%; Larisa have failed to score in 40% of games; OFI in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Larisa home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Larisa play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Larisa's recent matches and 20% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Larisa vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Larisa's recent games and 60% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Larisa and OFI tend to score early?
Larisa have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, OFI in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as OFI edge out Larisa 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OFI beat Larisa 1-2 at AEL FC Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Larisa 1.36 xG and OFI 1.39 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Larisa attack 0.70 / defence 1.39 against OFI attack 0.82 / defence 1.33, drawn from 10/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Larisa 36% | Draw 26% | OFI 38%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Larisa 30%, OFI 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Larisa's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
OFI's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Larisa 0.70 PPG, OFI 0.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OFI win broke the near-deadlock. OFI (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.