Larisa 0-2 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Levadiakos at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Larisa vs Levadiakos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Levadiakos make the trip to AEL FC Arena to face Larisa in Super League 1, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Sunday 2 November 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Larisa (all games): 1W 4D 3L across 8 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 0.88 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.12 goals per game and conceding 1.62 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Larisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at AEL FC Arena, Larisa have gone 0W 2D 2L this season (4 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Levadiakos have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W L W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Levadiakos have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Levadiakos are 0.92 PPG clear of Larisa in recent Super League 1 fixtures (1.80 vs 0.88). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Larisa have seen both teams score in 75% of their games, Levadiakos in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Larisa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games.
Levadiakos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 38% of cases; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games; Over 3.5 in 62%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Larisa 62% and Levadiakos 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Larisa 25% | Levadiakos 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Larisa 1.25 xG and Levadiakos 2.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Larisa attack 0.774 / defence 1.420 | Levadiakos attack 1.155 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.253. Larisa's attack strength of 0.774 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 8 Larisa games / 34 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Larisa 22% | Draw 22% | Levadiakos 55%. Fair-value odds: Larisa 4.55 | Draw 4.55 | Levadiakos 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Levadiakos (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.25 / 2.06) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Levadiakos are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.30 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Larisa 75% | Levadiakos 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Larisa vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: AEL FC Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Nov 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Larisa 22% | Draw 22% | Levadiakos 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 63% | xG Larisa 1.25 / Levadiakos 2.06 • Poisson strength factors: Larisa attack 0.774 / def 1.420 | Levadiakos attack 1.155 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.480 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Levadiakos (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Larisa xG
Expected Goals
2.06
Levadiakos xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Larisa vs Levadiakos kick off?
Larisa vs Levadiakos kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 2 November 2025 at AEL FC Arena.
What was the final score in Larisa vs Levadiakos?
Larisa 0 - 2 Levadiakos.
Where is Larisa vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at AEL FC Arena.
What competition is Larisa vs Levadiakos part of?
Larisa vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Larisa vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Larisa a 22% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 55% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Levadiakos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Larisa vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Larisa and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will Larisa vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Larisa and Levadiakos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Larisa and Levadiakos in?
Larisa (all comps): 1W-4D-3L in 8 | 0.88 PPG | GF 1.12 / GA 1.62 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Levadiakos (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Larisa's attack at 0.77x the league average against Levadiakos's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Levadiakos's attack (1.16x) against Larisa's defence (1.42x) — and the away total comes out at 2.06.
These ratings are built from 8/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Levadiakos Win
22%
4.50
22%
4.48
55%
1.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
0 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Larisa xG
Total xG
3.30
2.06
Levadiakos xG
4.50
22%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
1.80
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
13%
7.81
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
3%
35.10
16%
6.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 7.6 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Larisa vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Larisa and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Larisa and 2.06 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Larisa vs Levadiakos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Larisa come into this having played 8 games, going 1W 4D 3L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-W. The sample for Larisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Levadiakos sit at 1.50 PPG from 8 outings (3W 3D 2L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Levadiakos carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Larisa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Larisa's home form reads 0W 1D 2L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.33 PPG return. That actually lags their 0.88 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Levadiakos have taken 0.67 points per game from 3 outings (0W 2D 1L). That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Levadiakos's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Larisa are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 2.38 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Larisa have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Levadiakos in 62%.
Last 8 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Larisa
Blended
Levadiakos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Larisa and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Larisa have gone 1W 4D 3L in their last 8 games (0.88 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 3W 3D 2L in their last 8 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Larisa at home or Levadiakos away?
Levadiakos's away record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Larisa at home: 0.33 PPG; Levadiakos away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 13 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Larisa
0
Draws
2
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Larisa and Levadiakos?
From 2 meetings on record, Larisa have won 0, Levadiakos have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Larisa and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 13 December 2025, when Levadiakos 3-0 Larisa.
Who has won more matches between Larisa and Levadiakos?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Larisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Larisa, 100% for Levadiakos — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Larisa) and 67% (Levadiakos).
On the defensive side: Larisa have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Larisa home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Larisa play Levadiakos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Larisa's games and 100% of Levadiakos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Larisa vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Larisa's recent games and 67% of Levadiakos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Larisa and Levadiakos tend to score early?
Larisa have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Levadiakos cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Larisa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levadiakos beat Larisa 0-2 at AEL FC Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Larisa 1.25 xG and Levadiakos 2.06 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Larisa fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Larisa attack 0.77 / defence 1.42 against Levadiakos attack 1.16 / defence 1.09, drawn from 8/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Larisa 22% | Draw 22% | Levadiakos 55%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Larisa 25%, Levadiakos 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Larisa's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Levadiakos's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Levadiakos arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.88. Form held, and they took the win. Larisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Levadiakos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.