Larisa 1-1 Asteras Tripolis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Larisa at 38%, yet in-form Asteras Tripolis provide a compelling counter-argument — this Larisa vs Asteras Tripolis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Larisa and Asteras Tripolis meet at AEL FC Arena in Super League 1, Relegation Group - 7. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 May 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Larisa (all games): 0W 4D 6L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Larisa's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at AEL FC Arena this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Larisa are significantly better at AEL FC Arena than their overall form suggests.
Asteras Tripolis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Asteras Tripolis have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Asteras Tripolis arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Larisa, 1 for Asteras Tripolis and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2026, ended 1–3 with Asteras Tripolis winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Larisa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Asteras Tripolis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Larisa 56% versus Asteras Tripolis 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Larisa 38% | Asteras Tripolis 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Larisa 1.22 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Larisa attack 0.783 / defence 1.250 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.783 / defence 1.192. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.065. Larisa's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 1.22 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 26 Larisa games / 52 Asteras Tripolis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Larisa 38% | Draw 33% | Asteras Tripolis 29%. Fair-value odds: Larisa 2.63 | Draw 3.03 | Asteras Tripolis 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Larisa as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Asteras Tripolis (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Larisa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Larisa 60% | Asteras Tripolis 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Larisa vs Asteras Tripolis | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Group - 7 | Venue: AEL FC Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Larisa 38% | Draw 33% | Asteras Tripolis 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 48% | xG Larisa 1.22 / Asteras Tripolis 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Larisa attack 0.783 / def 1.250 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.783 / def 1.192 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: Larisa (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Larisa xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Asteras Tripolis xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Larisa vs Asteras Tripolis kick off?
Larisa vs Asteras Tripolis kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 9 May 2026 at AEL FC Arena.
What was the final score in Larisa vs Asteras Tripolis?
Larisa 1 - 1 Asteras Tripolis.
Where is Larisa vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
The match is being played at AEL FC Arena.
What competition is Larisa vs Asteras Tripolis part of?
Larisa vs Asteras Tripolis is a Relegation Group - 7 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Larisa vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our statistical model gives Larisa a 38% chance of winning, Asteras Tripolis a 29% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Larisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Larisa vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Larisa and Asteras Tripolis will score (BTTS).
Will Larisa vs Asteras Tripolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Larisa and Asteras Tripolis?
Record (3 meetings): Larisa 0W | Draws 2 | Asteras Tripolis 1W.
What form are Larisa and Asteras Tripolis in?
Larisa (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Larisa's attack rating (0.78) and Asteras Tripolis's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Asteras Tripolis's attack (0.78x) against Larisa's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 26/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Larisa Win
38%
2.63
33%
3.05
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Larisa xG
Total xG
2.26
1.04
Asteras Tripolis xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
13%
7.47
9%
11.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 10.9 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Larisa vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Larisa and Asteras Tripolis expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Larisa and 1.04 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Larisa vs Asteras Tripolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Larisa come into this having played 32 games, going 4W 13D 15L for 0.78 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-D.
On the other side, Asteras Tripolis sit at 0.88 PPG from 32 outings (6W 10D 16L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.78 PPG for Larisa against 0.88 for Asteras Tripolis. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Larisa's home form reads 2W 7D 7L across 16 games on their own ground, a 0.81 PPG return.
Away from home, Asteras Tripolis have taken 0.50 points per game from 16 outings (1W 5D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Larisa are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Asteras Tripolis are on 1.00 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Larisa
Current Season
Asteras Tripolis
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Larisa and Asteras Tripolis in coming into this match?
Larisa have gone 4W 13D 15L in their last 32 games (0.78 PPG), while Asteras Tripolis have gone 6W 10D 16L in their last 32 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Larisa at home or Asteras Tripolis away?
Larisa's home record (0.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Larisa at home: 0.81 PPG; Asteras Tripolis away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Larisa have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Asteras Tripolis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Larisa
3
Draws
1
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Larisa and Asteras Tripolis?
From 4 meetings on record, Larisa have won 0, Asteras Tripolis have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Larisa and Asteras Tripolis last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Larisa 1-1 Asteras Tripolis.
Who has won more matches between Larisa and Asteras Tripolis?
Asteras Tripolis have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Larisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Larisa 62%, Asteras Tripolis 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Larisa and 38% for Asteras Tripolis.
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis in 31%; Asteras Tripolis in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Larisa home games / Asteras Tripolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Larisa play Asteras Tripolis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Larisa's recent matches and 38% of Asteras Tripolis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Larisa vs Asteras Tripolis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Larisa's recent games and 38% of Asteras Tripolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Larisa and Asteras Tripolis tend to score early?
Larisa have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Asteras Tripolis in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Larisa and Asteras Tripolis share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Larisa and Asteras Tripolis finished level at 1-1 at AEL FC Arena, Relegation Group - 7, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Larisa 1.22 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.04 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Larisa attack 0.78 / defence 1.25 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.78 / defence 1.19, drawn from 26/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Larisa 38% | Draw 33% | Asteras Tripolis 29%, with Larisa to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Larisa 38%, Asteras Tripolis 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Larisa's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Larisa 0.78 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.