Lamia 0-5 Panathinaikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Panathinaikos (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lamia face Panathinaikos.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lamia host Panathinaikos at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias in Super League 1, Championship Round - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 April 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lamia — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.90 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Lamia at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Lamia are significantly better at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Panathinaikos have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Panathinaikos's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Panathinaikos's 2.10 PPG return is 1.70 points per game ahead of Lamia's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
Panathinaikos have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 7 encounters against Lamia's 0 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2024, ended 1–3 with Panathinaikos winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Panathinaikos have won 6 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Lamia in-play and half-time data (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Panathinaikos in-play and half-time data (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 53% versus Panathinaikos 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 55% | Panathinaikos 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 1.30 xG and Panathinaikos 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.905 / defence 1.088 | Panathinaikos attack 1.229 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.361. Panathinaikos have an above-average attack strength of 1.229 — the away xG of 1.82 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 52 Lamia games / 52 Panathinaikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamia 25% | Draw 27% | Panathinaikos 48%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 4.00 | Draw 3.70 | Panathinaikos 2.08. Panathinaikos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Panathinaikos are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Panathinaikos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lamia 60% | Panathinaikos 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs Panathinaikos | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 6 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Apr 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 25% | Draw 27% | Panathinaikos 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Lamia 1.30 / Panathinaikos 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.905 / def 1.088 | Panathinaikos attack 1.229 / def 0.879 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Panathinaikos xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs Panathinaikos kick off?
Lamia vs Panathinaikos kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs Panathinaikos?
Lamia 0 - 5 Panathinaikos.
Where is Lamia vs Panathinaikos being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs Panathinaikos part of?
Lamia vs Panathinaikos is a Championship Round - 6 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs Panathinaikos?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 25% chance of winning, Panathinaikos a 48% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs Panathinaikos?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Lamia and Panathinaikos will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs Panathinaikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Panathinaikos?
Record (7 meetings): Lamia 0W | Draws 1 | Panathinaikos 6W.
What form are Lamia and Panathinaikos in?
Lamia (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Panathinaikos (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lamia's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Panathinaikos's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Panathinaikos's attack versus Lamia's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
25%
3.93
27%
3.71
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Lamia xG
Total xG
3.12
1.82
Panathinaikos xG
3.93
25%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
16%
6.17
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
4%
24.24
13%
7.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs Panathinaikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Lamia and Panathinaikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Lamia and 1.82 for Panathinaikos, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs Panathinaikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lamia come into this having played 64 games, going 14W 21D 29L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Panathinaikos sit at 2.11 PPG from 64 outings (40W 15D 9L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Panathinaikos carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.13 PPG clear of Lamia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lamia's home form reads 10W 7D 14L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Panathinaikos have taken 2.03 points per game from 31 outings (19W 6D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panathinaikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lamia are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Panathinaikos are on 1.80 scored and 0.69 conceded.
Defensively: Panathinaikos in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Current Season
Panathinaikos
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and Panathinaikos in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 14W 21D 29L in their last 64 games (0.98 PPG), while Panathinaikos have gone 40W 15D 9L in their last 64 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or Panathinaikos away?
Panathinaikos's away record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 1.19 PPG; Panathinaikos away: 2.03 PPG.
Have Lamia or Panathinaikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamia have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Panathinaikos in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lamia and Panathinaikos runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Apr 2024, when Panathinaikos won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lamia's record when hosting Panathinaikos specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Lamia
1
Draws
8
Panathinaikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Panathinaikos?
From 10 meetings on record, Lamia have won 1, Panathinaikos have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and Panathinaikos last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when Lamia 3-1 Panathinaikos.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and Panathinaikos?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Panathinaikos see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 52%, Panathinaikos 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Lamia) and 42% (Panathinaikos).
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos in 48%; Lamia have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / Panathinaikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play Panathinaikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Lamia's recent matches and 39% of Panathinaikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamia vs Panathinaikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Lamia's recent games and 42% of Panathinaikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamia and Panathinaikos tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Panathinaikos in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Panathinaikos run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Lamia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos beat Lamia 0-5 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Championship Round - 6, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 1.30 xG and Panathinaikos 1.82 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Lamia fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Panathinaikos outscored their 1.82 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.91 / defence 1.09 against Panathinaikos attack 1.23 / defence 0.88, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 25% | Draw 27% | Panathinaikos 48%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 55%, Panathinaikos 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Panathinaikos's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Panathinaikos arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 0.98. Form held, and they took the win. Lamia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.