Lamia 0-0 Kallithea – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lamia at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamia vs Kallithea fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lamia host Kallithea at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias in Super League 1, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 September 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Lamia have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.90 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lamia have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Lamia have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Kallithea — All Games: 0W 2D 1L from 3 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 0.67 PPG. Last five: D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Kallithea have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.50 PPG (Lamia) versus 0.67 (Kallithea). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lamia register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Kallithea in 67% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Lamia in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Kallithea in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 33% versus Kallithea 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 33% | Kallithea 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 1.18 xG and Kallithea 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.902 / defence 1.197 | Kallithea attack 0.705 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.193 / away 1.290. Data: 29 Lamia games / 3 Kallithea games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Lamia 37% | Draw 30% | Kallithea 33%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Kallithea 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lamia at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lamia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Lamia 60% | Kallithea 67% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs Kallithea | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Sep 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 37% | Draw 30% | Kallithea 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Lamia 1.18 / Kallithea 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.902 / def 1.197 | Kallithea attack 0.705 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.193 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Lamia (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Kallithea xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs Kallithea kick off?
Lamia vs Kallithea kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 14 September 2024 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs Kallithea?
Lamia 0 - 0 Kallithea.
Where is Lamia vs Kallithea being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs Kallithea part of?
Lamia vs Kallithea is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs Kallithea?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 37% chance of winning, Kallithea a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lamia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs Kallithea?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Lamia and Kallithea will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs Kallithea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Kallithea?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lamia and Kallithea in?
Lamia (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.90 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Kallithea (all comps): 0W-2D-1L in 3 | 0.67 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lamia's attack rating (0.90) and Kallithea's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kallithea's attack versus Lamia's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (29/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamia Win
37%
2.69
30%
3.31
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Lamia xG
Total xG
2.27
1.09
Kallithea xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
13%
7.98
10%
9.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 11.3 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.3 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs Kallithea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Lamia and Kallithea expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Lamia and 1.09 for Kallithea, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs Kallithea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 3 outings, Lamia have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 1W 1D 1L record — W-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Lamia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kallithea's form line: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games, 0.67 PPG, last five D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Kallithea, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Lamia are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kallithea.
Goals in Recent Form
Lamia are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Kallithea are on 1.00 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kallithea in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Early Season
Kallithea
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and Kallithea in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while Kallithea have gone 0W 2D 1L in their last 3 (0.67 PPG).
Have Lamia or Kallithea been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamia have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Kallithea in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Kallithea go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 May 2025, when Kallithea won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lamia's record when hosting Kallithea specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Lamia
1
Draws
3
Kallithea
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Kallithea?
From 4 meetings on record, Lamia have won 0, Kallithea have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and Kallithea last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2025, when Kallithea 3-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and Kallithea?
Kallithea have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Kallithea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 33%, Kallithea 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Lamia) and 67% (Kallithea).
On the defensive side: Lamia keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Kallithea in 33%; Lamia have failed to score in 33% of games; Kallithea in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / Kallithea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play Kallithea?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Lamia's recent matches and 67% of Kallithea's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamia vs Kallithea usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Lamia's recent games and 67% of Kallithea's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamia and Kallithea tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Kallithea in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lamia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamia and Kallithea finished level at 0-0 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 1.18 xG and Kallithea 1.09 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lamia fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Kallithea landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.90 / defence 1.20 against Kallithea attack 0.70 / defence 1.10, drawn from 29/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 37% | Draw 30% | Kallithea 33%, with Lamia to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 33%, Kallithea 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kallithea's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Lamia arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lamia conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Kallithea managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.