Lamia 0-2 Asteras Tripolis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Asteras Tripolis at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Asteras Tripolis travel to Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias to take on Lamia. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 23 February 2022, 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Lamia have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamia's home record at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Asteras Tripolis — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Asteras Tripolis away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Asteras Tripolis are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Lamia have won 1, Asteras Tripolis 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2021, ended 1–0 with Lamia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Lamia trading profile (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Asteras Tripolis trading profile (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 50% versus Asteras Tripolis 32%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lamia 50% | Asteras Tripolis 23%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 1.05 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.937 / defence 1.503 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.705 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 0.968 / away 1.081. Data: 23 Lamia games / 22 Asteras Tripolis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamia 33% | Draw 29% | Asteras Tripolis 38%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Asteras Tripolis 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Asteras Tripolis as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Asteras Tripolis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Lamia 70% | Asteras Tripolis 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Wednesday 23 Feb 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 33% | Draw 29% | Asteras Tripolis 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Lamia 1.05 / Asteras Tripolis 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.937 / def 1.503 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.705 / def 1.159 | league avg home 0.968 / away 1.081 • Poisson stance: Asteras Tripolis (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Asteras Tripolis xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis kick off?
Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis kicked off at 15:30 on Wednesday 23 February 2022 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis?
Lamia 0 - 2 Asteras Tripolis.
Where is Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis part of?
Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 33% chance of winning, Asteras Tripolis a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Asteras Tripolis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Lamia and Asteras Tripolis will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Asteras Tripolis?
Record (1 meetings): Lamia 1W | Draws 0 | Asteras Tripolis 0W.
What form are Lamia and Asteras Tripolis in?
Lamia (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lamia's attack at 0.94x the league average against Asteras Tripolis's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Asteras Tripolis's attack versus Lamia's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Asteras Tripolis Win
33%
3.03
29%
3.43
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Lamia xG
Total xG
2.20
1.15
Asteras Tripolis xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
11%
9.51
13%
7.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 12.8 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Lamia and Asteras Tripolis expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Lamia and 1.15 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 22 outings, Lamia have picked up 0.82 PPG on a 4W 6D 12L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Asteras Tripolis's form line: 9W 5D 8L from 22 games, 1.45 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L. The sample for Asteras Tripolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Asteras Tripolis are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamia.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lamia have posted 0.90 PPG from 10 outings (2W 3D 5L).
On the road, Asteras Tripolis have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.45 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Asteras Tripolis's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Lamia are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Asteras Tripolis are on 1.05 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: Asteras Tripolis in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Blended
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and Asteras Tripolis in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 4W 6D 12L in their last 22 games (0.82 PPG), while Asteras Tripolis have gone 9W 5D 8L in their last 22 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or Asteras Tripolis away?
Asteras Tripolis's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 0.90 PPG; Asteras Tripolis away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Lamia or Asteras Tripolis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamia have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Asteras Tripolis in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Jan 2023, when Asteras Tripolis won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lamia's record when hosting Asteras Tripolis specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Lamia
3
Draws
3
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Asteras Tripolis?
From 10 meetings on record, Lamia have won 4, Asteras Tripolis have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and Asteras Tripolis last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2025, when Asteras Tripolis 1-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and Asteras Tripolis?
Lamia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 70%, Asteras Tripolis 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Lamia) and 20% (Asteras Tripolis).
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis in 40%; Lamia have failed to score in 30% of games; Asteras Tripolis in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / Asteras Tripolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play Asteras Tripolis?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Lamia's games and 40% of Asteras Tripolis's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 70% of Lamia's recent games and 20% of Asteras Tripolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamia and Asteras Tripolis tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Asteras Tripolis in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Asteras Tripolis cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Lamia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Asteras Tripolis beat Lamia 0-2 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 1.05 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.15 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Lamia fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Asteras Tripolis outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.94 / defence 1.50 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.70 / defence 1.16, drawn from 23/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 33% | Draw 29% | Asteras Tripolis 38%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 50%, Asteras Tripolis 23%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Asteras Tripolis arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Lamia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.70 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.