Lamia 0-3 AEK Athens FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamia at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamia vs AEK Athens FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lamia host AEK Athens FC at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias in Super League 1, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 August 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Lamia — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Lamia haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Lamia at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AEK Athens FC stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. AEK Athens FC haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
AEK Athens FC away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lamia at 1.20 PPG versus AEK Athens FC's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Lamia, 2 for AEK Athens FC and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 5 Jan 2022, ended 0–2 with AEK Athens FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Lamia in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
AEK Athens FC in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 46% versus AEK Athens FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 46% | AEK Athens FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 1.35 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.921 / defence 1.073 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.001 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.148. Data: 26 Lamia games / 26 AEK Athens FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Lamia 39% | Draw 27% | AEK Athens FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | AEK Athens FC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lamia at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lamia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lamia 50% | AEK Athens FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs AEK Athens FC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Aug 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 39% | Draw 27% | AEK Athens FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Lamia 1.35 / AEK Athens FC 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.921 / def 1.073 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.001 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.516 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Lamia (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
1.23
AEK Athens FC xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs AEK Athens FC kick off?
Lamia vs AEK Athens FC kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 20 August 2022 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs AEK Athens FC?
Lamia 0 - 3 AEK Athens FC.
Where is Lamia vs AEK Athens FC being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs AEK Athens FC part of?
Lamia vs AEK Athens FC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs AEK Athens FC?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 39% chance of winning, AEK Athens FC a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lamia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs AEK Athens FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Lamia and AEK Athens FC will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs AEK Athens FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and AEK Athens FC?
Record (2 meetings): Lamia 0W | Draws 0 | AEK Athens FC 2W.
What form are Lamia and AEK Athens FC in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Lamia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lamia's attack rating (0.92) and AEK Athens FC's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AEK Athens FC's attack versus Lamia's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamia Win
39%
2.56
27%
3.66
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Lamia xG
Total xG
2.58
1.23
AEK Athens FC xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
11%
8.79
9%
11.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.6 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs AEK Athens FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Lamia and AEK Athens FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Lamia and 1.23 for AEK Athens FC, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs AEK Athens FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lamia come into this having played 35 games, going 7W 9D 19L for 0.86 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-D. Lamia haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, AEK Athens FC sit at 1.51 PPG from 35 outings (15W 8D 12L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-L across their last five. AEK Athens FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
AEK Athens FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Lamia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Lamia's home form reads 2W 5D 10L across 17 games on their own ground, a 0.65 PPG return.
Away from home, AEK Athens FC have taken 1.53 points per game from 17 outings (7W 5D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lamia are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; AEK Athens FC are on 1.51 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Pre-Season
AEK Athens FC
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and AEK Athens FC in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 7W 9D 19L in their last 35 games (0.86 PPG), while AEK Athens FC have gone 15W 8D 12L in their last 35 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or AEK Athens FC away?
AEK Athens FC's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 0.65 PPG; AEK Athens FC away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Lamia or AEK Athens FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamia have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, AEK Athens FC in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Mar 2024, when AEK Athens FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lamia's record when hosting AEK Athens FC specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Lamia
1
Draws
9
AEK Athens FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and AEK Athens FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Lamia have won 0, AEK Athens FC have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and AEK Athens FC last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2024, when Lamia 0-1 AEK Athens FC.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and AEK Athens FC?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 59%, AEK Athens FC 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Lamia) and 47% (AEK Athens FC).
On the defensive side: Lamia have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / AEK Athens FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play AEK Athens FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Lamia's games and 59% of AEK Athens FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lamia vs AEK Athens FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Lamia's recent games and 47% of AEK Athens FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamia and AEK Athens FC tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, AEK Athens FC in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AEK Athens FC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Lamia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AEK Athens FC beat Lamia 0-3 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 1.35 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.23 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Lamia fell 1.4 short of their projected output. AEK Athens FC outscored their 1.23 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.92 / defence 1.07 against AEK Athens FC attack 1.00 / defence 0.97, drawn from 26/26 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 39% | Draw 27% | AEK Athens FC 34%, with Lamia to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual AEK Athens FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 46%, AEK Athens FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 49% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 0.86. That form edge translated into the three points. Lamia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.