Kallithea 1-3 Asteras Tripolis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Asteras Tripolis at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kallithea vs Asteras Tripolis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Asteras Tripolis make the trip to Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis to face Kallithea in Super League 1, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Sunday 6 October 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Kallithea's overall Super League 1 record this term: 0W 5D 1L from 6 games (0.83 PPG). Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 0.83 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Kallithea have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Asteras Tripolis (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Asteras Tripolis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Asteras Tripolis's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.83 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Kallithea — key trading statistics (6 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 0% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Asteras Tripolis — key trading statistics (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kallithea 50% versus Asteras Tripolis 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kallithea 33% | Asteras Tripolis 17%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kallithea 0.91 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kallithea attack 0.848 / defence 1.057 | Asteras Tripolis attack 1.007 / defence 0.872. League average goals — home 1.235 / away 1.216. Data: 6 Kallithea games / 32 Asteras Tripolis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kallithea 23% | Draw 35% | Asteras Tripolis 42%. Fair-value odds: Kallithea 4.35 | Draw 2.86 | Asteras Tripolis 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Asteras Tripolis at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Asteras Tripolis if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Kallithea 50% | Asteras Tripolis 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kallithea vs Asteras Tripolis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kallithea 23% | Draw 35% | Asteras Tripolis 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 47% | xG Kallithea 0.91 / Asteras Tripolis 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Kallithea attack 0.848 / def 1.057 | Asteras Tripolis attack 1.007 / def 0.872 | league avg home 1.235 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Asteras Tripolis (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Kallithea xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Asteras Tripolis xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kallithea vs Asteras Tripolis kick off?
Kallithea vs Asteras Tripolis kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 6 October 2024 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What was the final score in Kallithea vs Asteras Tripolis?
Kallithea 1 - 3 Asteras Tripolis.
Where is Kallithea vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What competition is Kallithea vs Asteras Tripolis part of?
Kallithea vs Asteras Tripolis is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Kallithea vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our statistical model gives Kallithea a 23% chance of winning, Asteras Tripolis a 42% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Asteras Tripolis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kallithea vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Kallithea and Asteras Tripolis will score (BTTS).
Will Kallithea vs Asteras Tripolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kallithea and Asteras Tripolis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kallithea and Asteras Tripolis in?
Kallithea (all comps): 0W-5D-1L in 6 | 0.83 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 0.83 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Kallithea vs Asteras Tripolis?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Kallithea's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Asteras Tripolis's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. Flip it around — Asteras Tripolis's attack (1.01x) against Kallithea's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 6/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 0-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Asteras Tripolis Win
23%
4.37
35%
2.84
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Kallithea xG
Total xG
2.21
1.29
Asteras Tripolis xG
4.37
23%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
6%
15.97
17%
5.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 14.2 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kallithea vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Kallithea and Asteras Tripolis expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Kallithea and 1.29 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Kallithea vs Asteras Tripolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kallithea's recent record stands at 0W 5D 1L from 6 games, a 0.83 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Kallithea, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Asteras Tripolis, meanwhile, have gone 1W 3D 2L across 6 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-D-L-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.83 PPG for Kallithea against 1.00 for Asteras Tripolis. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kallithea are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Asteras Tripolis are on 0.83 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Asteras Tripolis in 67%.
Defensively: Kallithea have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kallithea
Early Season
Asteras Tripolis
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kallithea and Asteras Tripolis in coming into this match?
Kallithea have gone 0W 5D 1L in their last 6 games (0.83 PPG), while Asteras Tripolis have gone 1W 3D 2L in their last 6 (1.00 PPG).
Have Kallithea or Asteras Tripolis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kallithea have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Asteras Tripolis in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Kallithea
0
Draws
2
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kallithea and Asteras Tripolis?
From 2 meetings on record, Kallithea have won 0, Asteras Tripolis have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kallithea and Asteras Tripolis last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Asteras Tripolis 1-0 Kallithea.
Who has won more matches between Kallithea and Asteras Tripolis?
Asteras Tripolis have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kallithea see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kallithea 50%, Asteras Tripolis 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Kallithea and 17% for Asteras Tripolis.
On the defensive side: Kallithea keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Kallithea have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kallithea home games / Asteras Tripolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kallithea play Asteras Tripolis?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Kallithea's games and 67% of Asteras Tripolis's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kallithea vs Asteras Tripolis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Kallithea's recent games and 17% of Asteras Tripolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kallithea and Asteras Tripolis tend to score early?
Kallithea have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Asteras Tripolis in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Asteras Tripolis cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Kallithea.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Asteras Tripolis beat Kallithea 1-3 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kallithea 0.91 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.29 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Asteras Tripolis outscored their 1.29 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kallithea attack 0.85 / defence 1.06 against Asteras Tripolis attack 1.01 / defence 0.87, drawn from 6/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kallithea 23% | Draw 35% | Asteras Tripolis 42%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kallithea 33%, Asteras Tripolis 17%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kallithea's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kallithea 0.83 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Asteras Tripolis win broke the near-deadlock. Kallithea shipped 3 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Asteras Tripolis scored 3 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.