Ionikos 0-3 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAOK at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ionikos vs PAOK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PAOK make the trip to Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias to face Ionikos in Super League 1 (matchday 12). The match kicks off on Thursday 10 November 2022 at 19:30 UK time.
Form
Ionikos (all games): 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ionikos's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Ionikos are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
PAOK's record over their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, PAOK have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
PAOK arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Ionikos, 0 for PAOK and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 27 Feb 2022, ended Ionikos 1–1 PAOK — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Ionikos — key trading statistics (last 44 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
PAOK — key trading statistics (last 44 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ionikos 57% versus PAOK 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ionikos 50% | PAOK 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ionikos 1.02 xG and PAOK 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ionikos attack 0.915 / defence 1.292 | PAOK attack 0.970 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.223 / away 1.055. Ionikos's defence rating of 1.292 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing PAOK's projected output up. Data: built from Ionikos's last 37 games and PAOK's last 37.
Result probabilities: Ionikos 25% | Draw 35% | PAOK 40%. Fair-value odds: Ionikos 4.03 | Draw 2.82 | PAOK 2.52. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates PAOK as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAOK if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ionikos 80% (last 10 home games) | PAOK 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ionikos vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 12 | Venue: Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias • Kick-off: Thursday 10 November 2022 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ionikos 25% | Draw 35% | PAOK 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Ionikos 1.02 / PAOK 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Ionikos attack 0.915 / def 1.292 | PAOK attack 0.970 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.223 / away 1.055 • Poisson stance: PAOK (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Ionikos xG
Expected Goals
1.32
PAOK xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ionikos vs PAOK FAQs
What time does Ionikos vs PAOK kick off?
Ionikos vs PAOK kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Thursday 10 November 2022 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias.
What was the final score in Ionikos vs PAOK?
Ionikos 0 - 3 PAOK.
Where is Ionikos vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias.
What competition is Ionikos vs PAOK part of?
Ionikos vs PAOK is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 12) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Ionikos vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Ionikos a 25% chance of winning, PAOK a 40% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ionikos vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Ionikos and PAOK will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ionikos vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ionikos's attack rating (0.92) and PAOK's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PAOK's attack (0.97x) against Ionikos's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from Ionikos's last 37 games and PAOK's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
25%
4.03
35%
2.82
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Ionikos xG
Total xG
2.34
1.32
PAOK xG
4.03
25%
Home win
2.82
35%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
7%
15.13
14%
6.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 13.0 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ionikos vs PAOK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ionikos vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Ionikos and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Ionikos and 1.32 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Ionikos vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 44 outings, Ionikos have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 13W 13D 18L record — D-L-D-D-W across the most recent five.
PAOK's form line: 22W 11D 11L from 44 games, 1.75 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-W.
Put side by side, PAOK are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ionikos.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ionikos have posted 1.29 PPG from their last 21 home games (6W 9D 6L).
On the road, PAOK have gone 8W 6D 7L from their last 21 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Ionikos are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 1.55 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ionikos
Blended
PAOK
Blended
Ionikos (Home) vs PAOK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ionikos
Blended
PAOK
Blended
❓ Ionikos vs PAOK Form FAQs
What form are Ionikos and PAOK in coming into this match?
Ionikos have gone 13W 13D 18L in their last 44 games (1.18 PPG), while PAOK have gone 22W 11D 11L in their last 44 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ionikos at home or PAOK away?
PAOK's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ionikos at home: 1.29 PPG; PAOK away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Ionikos or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ionikos have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, PAOK in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Ionikos and PAOK, the earliest from December 2021. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent in our data was on 5 March 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: PAOK have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAOK won PAOK 6-0 Ionikos on 5 Mar 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ionikos have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against PAOK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ionikos
1
Draws
2
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Ionikos vs PAOK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ionikos and PAOK?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Ionikos have won 1, PAOK have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Ionikos and PAOK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 March 2023: PAOK 6-0 Ionikos.
Who has won more matches between Ionikos and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ionikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ionikos 62%, PAOK 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Ionikos) and 38% (PAOK).
On the defensive side: PAOK in 33%; Ionikos have failed to score in 29% of games; PAOK in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ionikos home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ionikos vs PAOK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ionikos and PAOK matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Ionikos's recent matches and 48% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ionikos and PAOK matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Ionikos's recent games and 38% of PAOK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ionikos and PAOK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Ionikos's recent matches and 76% of PAOK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PAOK run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Ionikos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Ionikos 0-3 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ionikos 1.02 xG and PAOK 1.32 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Ionikos fell 1.0 short of their projected output. PAOK outscored their 1.32 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ionikos attack 0.92 / defence 1.29 against PAOK attack 0.97 / defence 0.91, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ionikos 25% | Draw 35% | PAOK 40%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ionikos 50%, PAOK 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ionikos's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
PAOK's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points. Ionikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAOK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.