Ionikos 0-0 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ionikos at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ionikos vs Levadiakos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Levadiakos make the trip to Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias to face Ionikos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Friday 26 August 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Ionikos (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ionikos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ionikos have posted 4W 2D 4L at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias this season.
Levadiakos have collected 0.00 PPG across 1 Super League 1 outings this season: 0W 0D 1L. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Ionikos. A 2.00 PPG lead over Levadiakos (2.00 vs 0.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ionikos 1.86 xG and Levadiakos 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ionikos attack 0.974 / defence 1.015 | Levadiakos attack 0.730 / defence 1.313. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.010. Levadiakos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.313 — this is suppressing Ionikos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Ionikos games / 1 Levadiakos games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Ionikos 64% | Draw 22% | Levadiakos 14%. Fair-value odds: Ionikos 1.56 | Draw 4.55 | Levadiakos 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Ionikos (64%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ionikos are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ionikos vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias • Kick-off: Friday 26 Aug 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ionikos 64% | Draw 22% | Levadiakos 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 44% | xG Ionikos 1.86 / Levadiakos 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Ionikos attack 0.974 / def 1.015 | Levadiakos attack 0.730 / def 1.313 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.010 • Poisson stance: Ionikos (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Ionikos xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Levadiakos xG
44%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ionikos vs Levadiakos kick off?
Ionikos vs Levadiakos kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 26 August 2022 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias.
What was the final score in Ionikos vs Levadiakos?
Ionikos 0 - 0 Levadiakos.
Where is Ionikos vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias.
What competition is Ionikos vs Levadiakos part of?
Ionikos vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Ionikos vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Ionikos a 64% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 14% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Ionikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ionikos vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Ionikos and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will Ionikos vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ionikos and Levadiakos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ionikos and Levadiakos in?
Ionikos (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Levadiakos (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ionikos's attack at 0.97x the league average against Levadiakos's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.86 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Levadiakos's attack (0.73x) against Ionikos's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from 27/1 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 1-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ionikos Win
64%
1.57
22%
4.59
14%
6.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Ionikos xG
Total xG
2.61
0.75
Levadiakos xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
6.94
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
16%
6.42
Win to Nil
30%
3.31
2%
44.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 10.3 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 9.5 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ionikos vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Ionikos and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Ionikos and 0.75 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Ionikos vs Levadiakos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 1 outings, Ionikos have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 1L record — L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Ionikos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Levadiakos's form line: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L. It's still early in the season for Levadiakos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.00 PPG for Ionikos against 0.00 for Levadiakos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ionikos are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 0.00 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ionikos have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Levadiakos in 0%.
Last 1 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ionikos
Early Season
Levadiakos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ionikos and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Ionikos have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Ionikos
2
Draws
1
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ionikos and Levadiakos?
From 3 meetings on record, Ionikos have won 0, Levadiakos have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ionikos and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2023, when Levadiakos 2-2 Ionikos.
Who has won more matches between Ionikos and Levadiakos?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ionikos home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ionikos play Levadiakos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Ionikos's recent matches and 0% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ionikos vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Ionikos's recent games and 100% of Levadiakos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ionikos and Levadiakos tend to score early?
Ionikos have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ionikos's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ionikos and Levadiakos finished level at 0-0 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ionikos 1.86 xG and Levadiakos 0.75 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ionikos fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ionikos attack 0.97 / defence 1.01 against Levadiakos attack 0.73 / defence 1.31, drawn from 27/1 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ionikos 64% | Draw 22% | Levadiakos 14%, with Ionikos to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ionikos 0%, Levadiakos 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ionikos 0.00 PPG, Levadiakos 0.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ionikos conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Levadiakos conceded 0 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.