Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Atromitos face Olympiakos Piraeus.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Olympiakos Piraeus travel to Peristeri Stadium to take on Atromitos. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 December 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Atromitos have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Atromitos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Atromitos's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Peristeri Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Atromitos are significantly better at Peristeri Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Olympiakos Piraeus stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Olympiakos Piraeus have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Olympiakos Piraeus's 2.10 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Atromitos's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Olympiakos Piraeus have the better historical record — 8 wins from 10 previous contests against 0 for Atromitos.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2026, ended 0–1 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
It is worth noting that Olympiakos Piraeus have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 8 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Atromitos in-play tendencies (39 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Olympiakos Piraeus in-play tendencies (39 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 54% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 31%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 54% | Olympiakos Piraeus 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 0.92 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 0.872 / defence 1.172 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.025 / defence 0.732. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 0.976. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence strength of 0.732 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 32 Atromitos games / 32 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atromitos 26% | Draw 36% | Olympiakos Piraeus 39%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 3.85 | Draw 2.78 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Atromitos 70% | Olympiakos Piraeus 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Peristeri Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 26% | Draw 36% | Olympiakos Piraeus 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 45% | xG Atromitos 0.92 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 0.872 / def 1.172 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.025 / def 0.732 | league avg home 1.439 / away 0.976 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Sunday 13 December 2026 at Peristeri Stadium.
Where is Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Peristeri Stadium.
What competition is Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 26% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 39% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (10 meetings): Atromitos 0W | Draws 2 | Olympiakos Piraeus 8W.
What form are Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
Atromitos (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Atromitos's attack at 0.87x the league average against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Olympiakos Piraeus's attack versus Atromitos's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 0-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
26%
3.92
36%
2.78
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.09
1.17
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
3.92
26%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
8%
12.67
15%
6.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 14.5 | 8.5 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Atromitos and 1.17 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Atromitos come into this having played 39 games, going 11W 12D 16L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Atromitos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Olympiakos Piraeus sit at 2.10 PPG from 39 outings (24W 10D 5L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Olympiakos Piraeus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.95 PPG clear of Atromitos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Atromitos's home form reads 5W 7D 8L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Olympiakos Piraeus have taken 2.10 points per game from 20 outings (12W 6D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Atromitos are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 1.49 scored and 0.49 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus in 62% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Early Season
Olympiakos Piraeus
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 11W 12D 16L in their last 39 games (1.15 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 24W 10D 5L in their last 39 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 1.10 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 2.10 PPG.
Have Atromitos or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atromitos have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 62%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Olympiakos Piraeus have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2023, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Atromitos's record when hosting Olympiakos Piraeus specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Atromitos
2
Draws
8
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, Atromitos have won 0, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 60%, Olympiakos Piraeus 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Atromitos) and 30% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atromitos play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Atromitos's recent matches and 40% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Atromitos's recent games and 30% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
Atromitos have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.