Atromitos 0-0 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atromitos at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atromitos vs Lamia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Peristeriou plays host to Atromitos versus Lamia in Super League 1, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Saturday 17 September 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Atromitos (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Atromitos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Peristeriou, Atromitos have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lamia's overall Super League 1 record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Lamia have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Lamia have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Atromitos, 1.10 for Lamia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Atromitos, 0 for Lamia and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Atromitos — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Lamia — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 51% versus Lamia 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 49% | Lamia 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.31 xG and Lamia 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 1.201 / defence 1.029 | Lamia attack 0.842 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.160 / away 1.019. Data: 30 Atromitos games / 30 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atromitos 45% | Draw 32% | Lamia 24%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 2.22 | Draw 3.12 | Lamia 4.17. Atromitos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Atromitos as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atromitos if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Atromitos 60% | Lamia 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Peristeriou • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 45% | Draw 32% | Lamia 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Atromitos 1.31 / Lamia 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 1.201 / def 1.029 | Lamia attack 0.842 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.160 / away 1.019 • Poisson stance: Atromitos (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Lamia xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atromitos vs Lamia kick off?
Atromitos vs Lamia kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at Stadio Peristeriou.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs Lamia?
Atromitos 0 - 0 Lamia.
Where is Atromitos vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Peristeriou.
What competition is Atromitos vs Lamia part of?
Atromitos vs Lamia is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 45% chance of winning, Lamia a 24% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Atromitos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Atromitos and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will Atromitos vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Lamia?
Record (3 meetings): Atromitos 1W | Draws 2 | Lamia 0W.
What form are Atromitos and Lamia in?
Atromitos (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Lamia (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Atromitos's attack at 1.20x the league average against Lamia's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lamia's attack (0.84x) against Atromitos's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
45%
2.23
32%
3.17
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.19
0.88
Lamia xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
19%
5.38
6%
15.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 12.9 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Atromitos and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Atromitos and 0.88 for Lamia, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs Lamia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 37 outings, Atromitos have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 10W 10D 17L record — D-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Atromitos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lamia's form line: 7W 11D 19L from 37 games, 0.86 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Lamia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Atromitos against 0.86 for Lamia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Atromitos have posted 1.39 PPG from 18 outings (7W 4D 7L).
On the road, Lamia have gone 5W 5D 8L from 18 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Atromitos are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 0.70 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Early Season
Lamia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atromitos and Lamia in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 10W 10D 17L in their last 37 games (1.08 PPG), while Lamia have gone 7W 11D 19L in their last 37 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or Lamia away?
Atromitos's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 1.39 PPG; Lamia away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Atromitos go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atromitos won 0-3 on 12 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atromitos have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lamia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Atromitos
5
Draws
1
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Lamia?
From 10 meetings on record, Atromitos have won 4, Lamia have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 12 January 2025, when Lamia 0-3 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Atromitos and Lamia?
Atromitos have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 56%, Lamia 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Atromitos) and 33% (Lamia).
On the defensive side: Lamia in 33%; Atromitos have failed to score in 28% of games; Lamia in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atromitos play Lamia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Atromitos's recent matches and 33% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atromitos vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Atromitos's recent games and 33% of Lamia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atromitos and Lamia tend to score early?
Atromitos have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Lamia in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Atromitos's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atromitos and Lamia finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Peristeriou, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.31 xG and Lamia 0.88 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Atromitos fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Lamia landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 1.20 / defence 1.03 against Lamia attack 0.84 / defence 0.94, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 45% | Draw 32% | Lamia 24%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 49%, Lamia 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lamia's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atromitos 1.08 PPG, Lamia 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Atromitos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Lamia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.