Atromitos 4-1 Apollon Smirnis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atromitos at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Atromitos face Apollon Smirnis.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Atromitos welcome Apollon Smirnis to Stadio Peristeriou in Super League 1 (matchday 12). Kick-off is Saturday 4 December 2021 at 15:15 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Atromitos stand at 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
In front of their own supporters, Atromitos have posted 1W 1D 3L from their last 5 home games — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Apollon Smirnis have recorded 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Apollon Smirnis have posted 0W 1D 4L from their last 5 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Atromitos 0.50 PPG, Apollon Smirnis 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Atromitos in-play tendencies (last 11 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Apollon Smirnis in-play tendencies (last 11 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 46% versus Apollon Smirnis 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 54% | Apollon Smirnis 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.50 xG and Apollon Smirnis 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 0.883 / defence 1.206 | Apollon Smirnis attack 0.579 / defence 1.580. League average goals — home 1.077 / away 1.270. Apollon Smirnis's defence rating of 1.580 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Atromitos's projected output up. Apollon Smirnis's attack rating of 0.579 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.89. Atromitos's defence rating of 1.206 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Apollon Smirnis's projected output up. Data: built from Atromitos's last 11 games and Apollon Smirnis's last 11.
Result probabilities: Atromitos 51% | Draw 27% | Apollon Smirnis 22%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 1.96 | Draw 3.64 | Apollon Smirnis 4.63. Atromitos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atromitos are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atromitos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Atromitos 60% (last 5 home games) | Apollon Smirnis 40% (last 5 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs Apollon Smirnis | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 12 | Venue: Stadio Peristeriou • Kick-off: Saturday 4 December 2021 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 51% | Draw 27% | Apollon Smirnis 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Atromitos 1.50 / Apollon Smirnis 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 0.883 / def 1.206 | Apollon Smirnis attack 0.579 / def 1.580 | league avg home 1.077 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: Atromitos (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Apollon Smirnis xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Atromitos vs Apollon Smirnis FAQs
What time does Atromitos vs Apollon Smirnis kick off?
Atromitos vs Apollon Smirnis kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Saturday 4 December 2021 at Stadio Peristeriou.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs Apollon Smirnis?
Atromitos 4 - 1 Apollon Smirnis.
Where is Atromitos vs Apollon Smirnis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Peristeriou.
What competition is Atromitos vs Apollon Smirnis part of?
Atromitos vs Apollon Smirnis is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 12) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs Apollon Smirnis?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 51% chance of winning, Apollon Smirnis a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Atromitos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs Apollon Smirnis?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Atromitos and Apollon Smirnis will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Atromitos vs Apollon Smirnis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Atromitos's attack at 0.88x the league average against Apollon Smirnis's defence at 1.58x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Apollon Smirnis's attack versus Atromitos's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Atromitos's last 11 games and Apollon Smirnis's last 11 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
51%
1.96
27%
3.64
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.39
0.89
Apollon Smirnis xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
21%
4.77
5%
20.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.2 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.2 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Atromitos vs Apollon Smirnis Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs Apollon Smirnis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Atromitos and Apollon Smirnis expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Atromitos and 0.89 for Apollon Smirnis, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs Apollon Smirnis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 11 outings, Atromitos have picked up 0.55 PPG on a 1W 3D 7L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Apollon Smirnis's form line: 1W 4D 6L from 11 games, 0.64 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atromitos on 0.55 PPG, Apollon Smirnis on 0.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Atromitos have posted 0.80 PPG from their last 5 home games (1W 1D 3L).
On the road, Apollon Smirnis have gone 0W 1D 4L from their last 5 away games — 0.20 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.64 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Apollon Smirnis's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atromitos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Atromitos are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 2.18 conceded per game recently; Apollon Smirnis are on 0.55 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Defensively: Apollon Smirnis in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Blended
Apollon Smirnis
Blended
Atromitos (Home) vs Apollon Smirnis (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Atromitos
Blended
Apollon Smirnis
Blended
❓ Atromitos vs Apollon Smirnis Form FAQs
What form are Atromitos and Apollon Smirnis in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 1W 3D 7L in their last 11 games (0.55 PPG), while Apollon Smirnis have gone 1W 4D 6L in their last 11 (0.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or Apollon Smirnis away?
Atromitos's home record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 0.80 PPG; Apollon Smirnis away: 0.20 PPG.
Have Atromitos or Apollon Smirnis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atromitos have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Apollon Smirnis in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 3 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from December 2021. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent in our data was on 19 March 2022, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Atromitos have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 Dec 2021, when Atromitos won Atromitos 4-1 Apollon Smirnis.
Atromitos's record when hosting Apollon Smirnis specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
3
Atromitos
0
Draws
0
Apollon Smirnis
Recent Meetings
❓ Atromitos vs Apollon Smirnis H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Apollon Smirnis?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Atromitos have won 3, Apollon Smirnis have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and Apollon Smirnis last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 March 2022: Atromitos 1-0 Apollon Smirnis.
Who has won more matches between Atromitos and Apollon Smirnis?
Atromitos have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Apollon Smirnis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 60%, Apollon Smirnis 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Atromitos) and 60% (Apollon Smirnis).
On the defensive side: Apollon Smirnis in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / Apollon Smirnis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Atromitos vs Apollon Smirnis Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Atromitos and Apollon Smirnis matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Atromitos's recent matches and 40% of Apollon Smirnis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Atromitos and Apollon Smirnis matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Atromitos's recent games and 60% of Apollon Smirnis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atromitos and Apollon Smirnis matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Atromitos's recent matches and 60% of Apollon Smirnis's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Atromitos run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Apollon Smirnis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atromitos beat Apollon Smirnis 4-1 at Stadio Peristeriou, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.50 xG and Apollon Smirnis 0.89 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Atromitos beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.88 / defence 1.21 against Apollon Smirnis attack 0.58 / defence 1.58, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 51% | Draw 27% | Apollon Smirnis 22%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 54%, Apollon Smirnis 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Apollon Smirnis's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atromitos 0.55 PPG, Apollon Smirnis 0.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atromitos win broke the near-deadlock. Atromitos (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Apollon Smirnis (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.