Asteras Tripolis 0-0 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Asteras Tripolis at 39%, yet in-form Olympiakos Piraeus provide a compelling counter-argument — this Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis plays host to Asteras Tripolis versus Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Monday 29 August 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Asteras Tripolis have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Asteras Tripolis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Asteras Tripolis's home record at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Asteras Tripolis are significantly better at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis than their overall form suggests.
Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Olympiakos Piraeus have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Olympiakos Piraeus are 1.10 PPG clear of Asteras Tripolis in recent Super League 1 fixtures (1.80 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Asteras Tripolis 0W, Olympiakos Piraeus 2W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2022, ended 1–5 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Asteras Tripolis half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Olympiakos Piraeus half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Asteras Tripolis 35% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Asteras Tripolis 29% | Olympiakos Piraeus 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 1.22 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.996 / defence 0.995 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.061 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.324 / away 1.026. Data: 27 Asteras Tripolis games / 27 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 39% | Draw 28% | Olympiakos Piraeus 32%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Olympiakos Piraeus 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Asteras Tripolis at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Olympiakos Piraeus (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Asteras Tripolis if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Asteras Tripolis 30% | Olympiakos Piraeus 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (27 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis • Kick-off: Monday 29 Aug 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 39% | Draw 28% | Olympiakos Piraeus 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Asteras Tripolis 1.22 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.996 / def 0.995 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.061 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.324 / away 1.026 • Poisson stance: Asteras Tripolis (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Asteras Tripolis xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 29 August 2022 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What was the final score in Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Asteras Tripolis 0 - 0 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What competition is Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Asteras Tripolis a 39% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Asteras Tripolis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (2 meetings): Asteras Tripolis 0W | Draws 0 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2W.
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Asteras Tripolis's attack at 1.00x the league average against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (1.06x) against Asteras Tripolis's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
The sample (27/27 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Asteras Tripolis Win
39%
2.54
28%
3.54
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Asteras Tripolis xG
Total xG
2.31
1.08
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
13%
7.50
10%
10.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 10.8 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.2 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis and 1.08 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 34 outings, Asteras Tripolis have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 11W 9D 14L record — D-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form line: 24W 7D 3L from 34 games, 2.32 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Olympiakos Piraeus are the form team by 1.08 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Asteras Tripolis.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Asteras Tripolis have posted 1.41 PPG from 17 outings (7W 3D 7L).
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 11W 4D 2L from 17 away games — 2.18 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Asteras Tripolis are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 1.71 scored and 0.71 conceded.
Defensively: Asteras Tripolis have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Olympiakos Piraeus in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Asteras Tripolis
Early Season
Olympiakos Piraeus
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Asteras Tripolis have gone 11W 9D 14L in their last 34 games (1.24 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 24W 7D 3L in their last 34 (2.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Asteras Tripolis at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Asteras Tripolis at home: 1.41 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 2.18 PPG.
Have Asteras Tripolis or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Asteras Tripolis have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 4 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Olympiakos Piraeus go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 5-0 on 28 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Asteras Tripolis have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Olympiakos Piraeus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Asteras Tripolis
2
Draws
7
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, Asteras Tripolis have won 1, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2026, when Asteras Tripolis 0-3 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Asteras Tripolis 29%, Olympiakos Piraeus 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Asteras Tripolis) and 53% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Olympiakos Piraeus in 41%; Asteras Tripolis have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Asteras Tripolis home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Asteras Tripolis play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Asteras Tripolis's recent matches and 53% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Asteras Tripolis's recent games and 53% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
Asteras Tripolis have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Asteras Tripolis's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, Regular Season - 2, as Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus drew 0-0 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 1.22 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.08 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Asteras Tripolis fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Olympiakos Piraeus landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 1.00 / defence 0.99 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.06 / defence 0.93, drawn from 27/27 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 39% | Draw 28% | Olympiakos Piraeus 32%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 29%, Olympiakos Piraeus 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.