Asteras Tripolis 1-1 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Asteras Tripolis at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis plays host to Asteras Tripolis versus Levadiakos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 28 September 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Asteras Tripolis have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Asteras Tripolis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, Asteras Tripolis have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Levadiakos (all games): 0W 3D 2L across 5 Super League 1 outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Asteras Tripolis's favour (1.20 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Asteras Tripolis 0W, Levadiakos 1W, 2D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2023, ended 0–1 with Levadiakos winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Asteras Tripolis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games.
Levadiakos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they fail to score in 60% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Asteras Tripolis 60% versus Levadiakos 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Asteras Tripolis 20% | Levadiakos 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 1.32 xG and Levadiakos 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.895 / defence 1.128 | Levadiakos attack 0.870 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.252 / away 1.225. Data: 31 Asteras Tripolis games / 5 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 36% | Draw 34% | Levadiakos 30%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 2.78 | Draw 2.94 | Levadiakos 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Asteras Tripolis as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Asteras Tripolis if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Asteras Tripolis 60% | Levadiakos 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 36% | Draw 34% | Levadiakos 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 55% | xG Asteras Tripolis 1.32 / Levadiakos 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.895 / def 1.128 | Levadiakos attack 0.870 / def 1.178 | league avg home 1.252 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Asteras Tripolis (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Asteras Tripolis xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Levadiakos xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos kick off?
Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What was the final score in Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos?
Asteras Tripolis 1 - 1 Levadiakos.
Where is Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What competition is Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos part of?
Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Asteras Tripolis a 36% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 30% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Asteras Tripolis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos?
Record (3 meetings): Asteras Tripolis 0W | Draws 2 | Levadiakos 1W.
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos in?
Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Levadiakos (all comps): 0W-3D-2L in 5 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Asteras Tripolis's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Levadiakos's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — Levadiakos's attack (0.87x) against Asteras Tripolis's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 31/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Asteras Tripolis Win
36%
2.81
34%
2.90
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Asteras Tripolis xG
Total xG
2.52
1.20
Levadiakos xG
2.81
36%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
11%
9.33
8%
12.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.7 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis and 1.20 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Asteras Tripolis's recent record stands at 1W 2D 2L from 5 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Levadiakos, meanwhile, have gone 0W 3D 2L across 5 games — 0.60 PPG, with D-L-L-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Levadiakos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Asteras Tripolis by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Levadiakos heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Asteras Tripolis are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 0.60 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Asteras Tripolis have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 5 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Asteras Tripolis
Early Season
Levadiakos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Asteras Tripolis have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 games (1.00 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 0W 3D 2L in their last 5 (0.60 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Asteras Tripolis have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Asteras Tripolis
4
Draws
2
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos?
From 7 meetings on record, Asteras Tripolis have won 1, Levadiakos have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Levadiakos 3-1 Asteras Tripolis.
Who has won more matches between Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Levadiakos see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Asteras Tripolis 60%, Levadiakos 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Asteras Tripolis and 40% for Levadiakos.
On the defensive side: Levadiakos in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Asteras Tripolis home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Asteras Tripolis play Levadiakos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Asteras Tripolis's recent matches and 40% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Asteras Tripolis's recent games and 40% of Levadiakos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos tend to score early?
Asteras Tripolis have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 1.32 xG and Levadiakos 1.20 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 0.90 / defence 1.13 against Levadiakos attack 0.87 / defence 1.18, drawn from 31/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 36% | Draw 34% | Levadiakos 30%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 20%, Levadiakos 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Levadiakos's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Asteras Tripolis arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.60. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.