Asteras Tripolis 1-2 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atromitos at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Asteras Tripolis host Atromitos at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 February 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Asteras Tripolis have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Asteras Tripolis's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atromitos stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Atromitos have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Asteras Tripolis at 0.80 PPG versus Atromitos's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Asteras Tripolis have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 7 past contests while Atromitos have managed just 2 wins.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with Asteras Tripolis winning.
The historical record gives Asteras Tripolis a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Asteras Tripolis in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Atromitos in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Asteras Tripolis 47% versus Atromitos 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Asteras Tripolis 47% | Atromitos 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 1.11 xG and Atromitos 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.939 / defence 1.038 | Atromitos attack 0.994 / defence 0.881. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.152. Data: 47 Asteras Tripolis games / 47 Atromitos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 33% | Draw 29% | Atromitos 37%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Atromitos 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atromitos are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atromitos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Asteras Tripolis 50% | Atromitos 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Feb 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 33% | Draw 29% | Atromitos 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Asteras Tripolis 1.11 / Atromitos 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.939 / def 1.038 | Atromitos attack 0.994 / def 0.881 | league avg home 1.344 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Atromitos (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Asteras Tripolis xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Atromitos xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos kick off?
Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium.
What was the final score in Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos?
Asteras Tripolis 1 - 2 Atromitos.
Where is Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium.
What competition is Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos part of?
Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives Asteras Tripolis a 33% chance of winning, Atromitos a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Atromitos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos will score (BTTS).
Will Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos?
Record (7 meetings): Asteras Tripolis 5W | Draws 0 | Atromitos 2W.
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos in?
Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Atromitos (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Asteras Tripolis's attack rating (0.94) and Atromitos's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Atromitos's attack versus Asteras Tripolis's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
33%
2.99
29%
3.40
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Asteras Tripolis xG
Total xG
2.30
1.19
Atromitos xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
10%
9.82
12%
8.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 11.9 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis and 1.19 for Atromitos, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Asteras Tripolis come into this having played 53 games, going 16W 12D 25L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Asteras Tripolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Atromitos sit at 1.21 PPG from 53 outings (17W 13D 23L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Asteras Tripolis on 1.13 PPG, Atromitos on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Asteras Tripolis's home form reads 9W 6D 11L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Atromitos have taken 1.65 points per game from 26 outings (13W 4D 9L). That's actually stronger than their 1.21 PPG overall record — Atromitos travel well.
The Goals Picture
Asteras Tripolis are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 1.13 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
Atromitos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos in coming into this match?
Asteras Tripolis have gone 16W 12D 25L in their last 53 games (1.13 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 17W 13D 23L in their last 53 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Asteras Tripolis at home or Atromitos away?
Atromitos's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Asteras Tripolis at home: 1.27 PPG; Atromitos away: 1.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 May 2025, when Atromitos won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Asteras Tripolis's record when hosting Atromitos specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Asteras Tripolis
0
Draws
4
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos?
From 10 meetings on record, Asteras Tripolis have won 6, Atromitos have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Asteras Tripolis 4-2 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos?
Asteras Tripolis have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Asteras Tripolis 46%, Atromitos 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Asteras Tripolis) and 54% (Atromitos).
On the defensive side: Atromitos in 31%; Asteras Tripolis have failed to score in 27% of games; Atromitos in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Asteras Tripolis home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Asteras Tripolis play Atromitos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Asteras Tripolis's recent matches and 46% of Atromitos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Asteras Tripolis's recent games and 54% of Atromitos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos tend to score early?
Asteras Tripolis have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Atromitos in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atromitos edge out Asteras Tripolis 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atromitos beat Asteras Tripolis 1-2 at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 1.11 xG and Atromitos 1.19 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Atromitos outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 0.94 / defence 1.04 against Atromitos attack 0.99 / defence 0.88, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 33% | Draw 29% | Atromitos 37%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 47%, Atromitos 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Atromitos's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Asteras Tripolis 1.13 PPG, Atromitos 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atromitos win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.