Aris Thessalonikis 1-0 Panserraikos – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Aris Thessalonikis at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Aris Thessalonikis face Panserraikos.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis plays host to Aris Thessalonikis versus Panserraikos in Super League 1 (matchday 15). Kick-off: Sunday 15 December 2024 at 13:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Aris Thessalonikis have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Aris Thessalonikis's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Panserraikos's record over their last 10 games: 5W 0D 5L (1.50 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Panserraikos's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for Aris Thessalonikis against 1.50 for Panserraikos. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Aris Thessalonikis's last 10 home games and Panserraikos's last 10 away games) — Aris Thessalonikis have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Panserraikos in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Aris Thessalonikis edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.3 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 24 Aug 2024, ended Aris Thessalonikis 1–0 Panserraikos — a Aris Thessalonikis win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Aris Thessalonikis — key trading statistics (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).

Panserraikos — key trading statistics (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 47% versus Panserraikos 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 43% | Panserraikos 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.70 xG and Panserraikos 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.143 / defence 0.797 | Panserraikos attack 0.992 / defence 1.186. League average goals — home 1.254 / away 1.269. Aris Thessalonikis have a tight defence (rating 0.797), which is pulling Panserraikos's projected output down. Data: built from Aris Thessalonikis's last 40 games and Panserraikos's last 40.

Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 53% | Draw 26% | Panserraikos 22%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 1.89 | Draw 3.92 | Panserraikos 4.65. Aris Thessalonikis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Aris Thessalonikis at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging only 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Aris Thessalonikis 70% (last 10 home games) | Panserraikos 60% (last 10 away games).

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