Aris Thessalonikis 1-2 Panathinaikos – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Aris Thessalonikis at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos meet at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 February 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Aris Thessalonikis (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 7W 2D 1L at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Aris Thessalonikis are significantly better at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis than their overall form suggests.
Panathinaikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Panathinaikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Panathinaikos have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Aris Thessalonikis against 1.70 for Panathinaikos. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Aris Thessalonikis have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Panathinaikos in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Trading & In-Play
Aris Thessalonikis — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Panathinaikos — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Aris Thessalonikis 26% | Panathinaikos 30%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Aris Thessalonikis 37% | Panathinaikos 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.20 xG and Panathinaikos 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.405 / defence 0.711 | Panathinaikos attack 1.039 / defence 0.740. League average goals — home 1.154 / away 0.993. Aris Thessalonikis carry an above-average attack strength of 1.405 — their λ of 1.20 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Panathinaikos's defence strength of 0.740 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Aris Thessalonikis's defence rating of 0.711 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Aris Thessalonikis games / 47 Panathinaikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 43% | Draw 38% | Panathinaikos 19%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 2.33 | Draw 2.63 | Panathinaikos 5.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 38% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Aris Thessalonikis are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 38% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.93 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 30% | Panathinaikos 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Feb 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 43% | Draw 38% | Panathinaikos 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.20 / Panathinaikos 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.405 / def 0.711 | Panathinaikos attack 1.039 / def 0.740 | league avg home 1.154 / away 0.993 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Panathinaikos xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 12 February 2023 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos?
Aris Thessalonikis 1 - 2 Panathinaikos.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 43% chance of winning, Panathinaikos a 19% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Panathinaikos (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Aris Thessalonikis's attacking strength (1.41x league average) is weighed against Panathinaikos's defensive record (0.74x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — Panathinaikos's attack (1.04x) against Aris Thessalonikis's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.7%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
43%
2.31
38%
2.64
19%
5.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
1.93
0.73
Panathinaikos xG
2.31
43%
Home win
2.64
38%
Draw
5.32
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
21%
4.81
6%
17.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 10.6 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.3 | 12.7 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 0.73 for Panathinaikos, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 57 outings, Aris Thessalonikis have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 27W 12D 18L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Panathinaikos's form line: 33W 10D 14L from 57 games, 1.91 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Panathinaikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.63 PPG for Aris Thessalonikis against 1.91 for Panathinaikos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 2.00 PPG from 28 outings (16W 8D 4L).
On the road, Panathinaikos have gone 12W 5D 11L from 28 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.91 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Panathinaikos's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; Panathinaikos are on 1.44 scored and 0.65 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Aris Thessalonikis have seen both teams score in 26% of their recent games; Panathinaikos in 30%.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games; Panathinaikos in 54% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
Panathinaikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 27W 12D 18L in their last 57 games (1.63 PPG), while Panathinaikos have gone 33W 10D 14L in their last 57 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or Panathinaikos away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 2.00 PPG; Panathinaikos away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or Panathinaikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Panathinaikos in 54%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Panathinaikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Aris Thessalonikis
3
Draws
4
Panathinaikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos?
From 10 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 3, Panathinaikos have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Panathinaikos 3-1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 32% (Panathinaikos) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 32% (Panathinaikos).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 61% of their matches; Panathinaikos in 43%; Aris Thessalonikis have failed to score in 39% of games; Panathinaikos in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Panathinaikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play Panathinaikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 32% of Panathinaikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 32% of Panathinaikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Panathinaikos in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Panathinaikos defy the odds to beat Aris Thessalonikis 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos beat Aris Thessalonikis 1-2 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.20 xG and Panathinaikos 0.73 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Panathinaikos outscored their 0.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.41 / defence 0.71 against Panathinaikos attack 1.04 / defence 0.74, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 43% | Draw 38% | Panathinaikos 19%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Panathinaikos win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 37%, Panathinaikos 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 28%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Panathinaikos's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Aris Thessalonikis 1.63 PPG, Panathinaikos 1.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panathinaikos win broke the near-deadlock. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.