Aris Thessalonikis 2-1 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus make the trip to Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis to face Aris Thessalonikis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Sunday 6 March 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Aris Thessalonikis have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aris Thessalonikis's home record at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.30. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record: 7W 3D 0L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Olympiakos Piraeus are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Aris Thessalonikis half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time; they fail to score in 44% of games.
Olympiakos Piraeus half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Aris Thessalonikis 24% | Olympiakos Piraeus 44%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Aris Thessalonikis 28% | Olympiakos Piraeus 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 0.69 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.867 / defence 0.959 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.129 / defence 0.782. League average goals — home 1.011 / away 1.054. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence strength of 0.782 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 25 Aris Thessalonikis games / 25 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 22% | Draw 31% | Olympiakos Piraeus 47%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 4.55 | Draw 3.23 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2.13. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Aris Thessalonikis's lower xG of 0.69 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.83 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 34% on No. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 20% | Olympiakos Piraeus 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Mar 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 22% | Draw 31% | Olympiakos Piraeus 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 34% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 0.69 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.867 / def 0.959 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.129 / def 0.782 | league avg home 1.011 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.69
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
34%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 6 March 2022 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Aris Thessalonikis 2 - 1 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 22% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 47% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Aris Thessalonikis's attack rating (0.87) and Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 0.69 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (1.13x) against Aris Thessalonikis's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.7%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
22%
4.53
31%
3.19
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.69
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
1.83
1.14
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
4.53
22%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.96
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
50%
1.99
Win to Nil
7%
14.18
23%
4.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.1 | 18.4 | 10.5 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.6 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.7%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 0.69 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 1.14 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Aris Thessalonikis's recent record stands at 12W 6D 7L from 25 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus, meanwhile, have gone 20W 5D 0L across 25 games — 2.60 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Olympiakos Piraeus by 0.92 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Aris Thessalonikis heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Aris Thessalonikis have managed 6W 4D 2L from 12 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record stands at 9W 3D 0L across 12 trips, a 2.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 1.84 scored and 0.48 conceded. Olympiakos Piraeus's attacking output running into Aris Thessalonikis's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Aris Thessalonikis have seen both teams score in 24% of their recent games.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games; Olympiakos Piraeus in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 12W 6D 7L in their last 25 games (1.68 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 20W 5D 0L in their last 25 (2.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 1.83 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 2.50 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-1 on 27 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Olympiakos Piraeus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Aris Thessalonikis
3
Draws
5
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 2, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 17% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 50% (Olympiakos Piraeus) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 58% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Olympiakos Piraeus in 50%; Aris Thessalonikis have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 50% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 58% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Aris Thessalonikis defy the odds to beat Olympiakos Piraeus 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat Olympiakos Piraeus 2-1 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 0.69 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.14 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.87 / defence 0.96 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.13 / defence 0.78, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 22% | Draw 31% | Olympiakos Piraeus 47%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Aris Thessalonikis win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 28%, Olympiakos Piraeus 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 34%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 24% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.60 PPG against 1.68. Form was overturned, with Aris Thessalonikis winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.