Aris Thessalonikis 1-1 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (37%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Aris Thessalonikis face Olympiakos Piraeus.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus make the trip to Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis to face Aris Thessalonikis in Super League 1, Championship Round - 7. The match kicks off on Wednesday 24 April 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Aris Thessalonikis have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Aris Thessalonikis's home record at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 8W 0D 2L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Olympiakos Piraeus are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Aris Thessalonikis 1W, Olympiakos Piraeus 3W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2024, ended 0–3 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Aris Thessalonikis half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Olympiakos Piraeus half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 45% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 52% | Olympiakos Piraeus 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.39 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.090 / defence 0.936 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.138 / defence 0.779. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.361. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence strength of 0.779 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 52 Aris Thessalonikis games / 52 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 34% | Draw 30% | Olympiakos Piraeus 37%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 60% | Olympiakos Piraeus 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 7 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Wednesday 24 Apr 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 34% | Draw 30% | Olympiakos Piraeus 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 60% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.39 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.090 / def 0.936 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.138 / def 0.779 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 24 April 2024 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Aris Thessalonikis 1 - 1 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Championship Round - 7 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 34% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (5 meetings): Aris Thessalonikis 1W | Draws 1 | Olympiakos Piraeus 3W.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Aris Thessalonikis's attack rating (1.09) and Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (1.14x) against Aris Thessalonikis's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
34%
2.96
30%
3.38
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.84
1.45
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
23%
4.26
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
8%
12.61
9%
10.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.5 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.8 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 1.45 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Aris Thessalonikis's recent record stands at 28W 12D 27L from 67 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Olympiakos Piraeus, meanwhile, have gone 42W 14D 11L across 67 games — 2.09 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Olympiakos Piraeus by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Aris Thessalonikis heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Aris Thessalonikis have managed 19W 5D 9L from 33 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — Aris Thessalonikis are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record stands at 18W 9D 6L across 33 trips, a 1.91 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 2.09 scored and 0.78 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Current Season
Olympiakos Piraeus
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 28W 12D 27L in their last 67 games (1.43 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 42W 14D 11L in their last 67 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 1.88 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 1.91 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-1 on 27 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Olympiakos Piraeus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Aris Thessalonikis
3
Draws
5
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 2, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 58%, Olympiakos Piraeus 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 46% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Olympiakos Piraeus in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 42% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 46% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Championship Round - 7, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.39 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.45 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.09 / defence 0.94 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.14 / defence 0.78, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 34% | Draw 30% | Olympiakos Piraeus 37%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 52%, Olympiakos Piraeus 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.43. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.