Aris Thessalonikis 1-1 Kifisia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Aris Thessalonikis at 78% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Aris Thessalonikis face Kifisia.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Aris Thessalonikis welcome Kifisia to Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis in Super League 1 (matchday 7). Kick-off is Sunday 1 October 2023 at 16:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Aris Thessalonikis's form when playing at home: 6W 0D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Aris Thessalonikis are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Kifisia — last 6 games: 1W 2D 3L — 0.83 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Kifisia have posted 0W 0D 3L from their last 3 away outings — 0.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.83 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Aris Thessalonikis) versus 0.83 (Kifisia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Aris Thessalonikis in-play tendencies (last 6 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Kifisia in-play tendencies (last 6 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 50% versus Kifisia 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Aris Thessalonikis 67% | Kifisia 83%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 2.84 xG and Kifisia 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.279 / defence 0.950 | Kifisia attack 0.700 / defence 1.334. League average goals — home 1.667 / away 1.183. Aris Thessalonikis carry an above-average attack rating of 1.279 — their 2.84 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Kifisia's defence rating of 1.334 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Aris Thessalonikis's projected output up. Kifisia's attack rating of 0.700 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.79. Data: built from Aris Thessalonikis's last 32 games and Kifisia's last 6.
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 78% | Draw 16% | Kifisia 6%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 1.29 | Draw 6.09 | Kifisia 17.30. The model has a clear lean to Aris Thessalonikis (78%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 3.63. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.63 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Aris Thessalonikis at 78% — clear model lean.
The Poisson model projects 3.63 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Aris Thessalonikis's last 10 home games and Kifisia's last 3 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Aris Thessalonikis 80% (last 10 home games) | Kifisia 33% (last 3 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Kifisia | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 7 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Sunday 1 October 2023 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 78% | Draw 16% | Kifisia 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% (Under 30%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Aris Thessalonikis 2.84 / Kifisia 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.279 / def 0.950 | Kifisia attack 0.700 / def 1.334 | league avg home 1.667 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (78%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.84
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Kifisia xG
53%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Aris Thessalonikis vs Kifisia FAQs
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Kifisia kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Kifisia kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Sunday 1 October 2023 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Kifisia?
Aris Thessalonikis 1 - 1 Kifisia.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Kifisia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Kifisia part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Kifisia is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 7) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Kifisia?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 78% chance of winning, Kifisia a 6% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Kifisia?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Kifisia will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Kifisia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Aris Thessalonikis's attack rating (1.28) and Kifisia's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 2.84 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kifisia's attack versus Aris Thessalonikis's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Aris Thessalonikis's last 32 games and Kifisia's last 6 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
78%
1.29
16%
6.09
6%
17.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.84
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
3.63
0.79
Kifisia xG
1.29
78%
Home win
6.09
16%
Draw
17.30
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
46%
2.20
6%
17.17
Win to Nil
35%
2.82
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 7.5 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.4 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 10.2 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 7.2 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Aris Thessalonikis vs Kifisia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Kifisia?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Kifisia expected to score?
The model projects 2.84 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 0.79 for Kifisia, a combined total of 3.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Kifisia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 78%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 6 outings, Aris Thessalonikis have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 2W 1D 3L record — L-W-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Kifisia's form line: 1W 2D 3L from 6 games, 0.83 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Aris Thessalonikis on 1.17 PPG, Kifisia on 0.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Kifisia are on 1.33 scored and 2.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kifisia in 67%.
Last 6 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Early Season
Kifisia
Early Season
Aris Thessalonikis (Home) vs Kifisia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Aris Thessalonikis
Early Season
Kifisia
Early Season
❓ Aris Thessalonikis vs Kifisia Form FAQs
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Kifisia in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 games (1.17 PPG), while Kifisia have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 (0.83 PPG).
Have Aris Thessalonikis or Kifisia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Kifisia in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from October 2023. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Aris Thessalonikis's record when hosting Kifisia specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Aris Thessalonikis
2
Draws
0
Kifisia
Recent Meetings
❓ Aris Thessalonikis vs Kifisia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Kifisia?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Aris Thessalonikis have won 3, Kifisia have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Kifisia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: Kifisia 1-2 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Kifisia?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Kifisia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 50%, Kifisia 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Aris Thessalonikis and 83% for Kifisia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis have failed to score in 33% of games; Kifisia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Kifisia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Aris Thessalonikis vs Kifisia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Aris Thessalonikis and Kifisia matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Aris Thessalonikis's games and 67% of Kifisia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Aris Thessalonikis and Kifisia matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Aris Thessalonikis's matches and 83% of Kifisia's.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Kifisia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 83% of Kifisia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Aris Thessalonikis and Kifisia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Regular Season - 7, as Aris Thessalonikis and Kifisia drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 2.84 xG and Kifisia 0.79 xG, a combined 3.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.28 / defence 0.95 against Kifisia attack 0.70 / defence 1.33, drawn from 32/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 78% | Draw 16% | Kifisia 6%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 78%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 67%, Kifisia 83%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Kifisia's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Aris Thessalonikis 1.17 PPG, Kifisia 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kifisia conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.