AEK Athens FC 3-0 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AEK Athens FC (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as AEK Athens FC face Volos NFC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Volos NFC travel to OPAP Arena to take on AEK Athens FC. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 3 January 2024, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, AEK Athens FC have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AEK Athens FC's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at OPAP Arena this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at OPAP Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Volos NFC — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Volos NFC's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
AEK Athens FC are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 0.90 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
AEK Athens FC hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 5 previous encounters compared to 1 for Volos NFC, with 0 draws in between.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2023, ended 3–2 with AEK Athens FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both AEK Athens FC and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
AEK Athens FC trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time.
Volos NFC trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AEK Athens FC 35% versus Volos NFC 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AEK Athens FC 51% | Volos NFC 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 1.72 xG and Volos NFC 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 1.098 / defence 0.663 | Volos NFC attack 0.913 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.579 / away 1.189. AEK Athens FC's defence rating of 0.663 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 AEK Athens FC games / 41 Volos NFC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 60% | Draw 25% | Volos NFC 14%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 1.67 | Draw 4.00 | Volos NFC 7.14. The model has a clear lean to AEK Athens FC (60%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AEK Athens FC are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: AEK Athens FC 30% | Volos NFC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: OPAP Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 Jan 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 60% | Draw 25% | Volos NFC 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 43% | xG AEK Athens FC 1.72 / Volos NFC 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: AEK Athens FC attack 1.098 / def 0.663 | Volos NFC attack 0.913 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.579 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
AEK Athens FC xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Volos NFC xG
43%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC kick off?
AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 3 January 2024 at OPAP Arena.
What was the final score in AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC?
AEK Athens FC 3 - 0 Volos NFC.
Where is AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at OPAP Arena.
What competition is AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC part of?
AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives AEK Athens FC a 60% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 14% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both AEK Athens FC and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Volos NFC?
Record (5 meetings): AEK Athens FC 4W | Draws 0 | Volos NFC 1W.
What form are AEK Athens FC and Volos NFC in?
AEK Athens FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Volos NFC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AEK Athens FC's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Volos NFC's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. The same calculation in reverse, Volos NFC's attack versus AEK Athens FC's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.9%), 1-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
60%
1.66
25%
3.94
14%
6.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
AEK Athens FC xG
Total xG
2.44
0.72
Volos NFC xG
1.66
60%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
6.97
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
18%
5.56
Win to Nil
29%
3.41
3%
38.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 10.8 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 9.3 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are AEK Athens FC and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 0.72 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AEK Athens FC's recent record stands at 35W 10D 6L from 51 games, a 2.25 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for AEK Athens FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Volos NFC, meanwhile, have gone 14W 12D 25L across 51 games — 1.06 PPG, with D-W-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours AEK Athens FC by 1.19 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Volos NFC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, AEK Athens FC have managed 19W 4D 2L from 25 games — 2.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Volos NFC's away record stands at 7W 8D 10L across 25 trips, a 1.16 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AEK Athens FC are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 0.59 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 0.98 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 59% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AEK Athens FC
Blended
Volos NFC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AEK Athens FC and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
AEK Athens FC have gone 35W 10D 6L in their last 51 games (2.25 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 14W 12D 25L in their last 51 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AEK Athens FC at home or Volos NFC away?
AEK Athens FC's home record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AEK Athens FC at home: 2.44 PPG; Volos NFC away: 1.16 PPG.
Have AEK Athens FC or Volos NFC been keeping clean sheets recently?
AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 59% of their recent games, Volos NFC in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Dec 2022, when AEK Athens FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AEK Athens FC's record when hosting Volos NFC specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
AEK Athens FC
1
Draws
1
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Volos NFC?
From 10 meetings on record, AEK Athens FC have won 8, Volos NFC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AEK Athens FC and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Volos NFC 2-2 AEK Athens FC.
Who has won more matches between AEK Athens FC and Volos NFC?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — AEK Athens FC 28% BTTS, Volos NFC 36%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (AEK Athens FC) and 48% (Volos NFC).
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC keep a clean sheet in 68% of their matches; Volos NFC in 32%; Volos NFC in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AEK Athens FC home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AEK Athens FC play Volos NFC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 28% of AEK Athens FC's recent matches and 36% of Volos NFC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of AEK Athens FC's recent games and 48% of Volos NFC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AEK Athens FC and Volos NFC tend to score early?
AEK Athens FC have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Volos NFC in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AEK Athens FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Volos NFC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AEK Athens FC beat Volos NFC 3-0 at OPAP Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 1.72 xG and Volos NFC 0.72 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. AEK Athens FC beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.10 / defence 0.66 against Volos NFC attack 0.91 / defence 0.99, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 60% | Draw 25% | Volos NFC 14%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 51%, Volos NFC 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time, and duly kept one.
Volos NFC's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was vindicated by the result. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm. Volos NFC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.