AEK Athens FC 1-0 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates AEK Athens FC at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus make the trip to OPAP Arena to face AEK Athens FC in Super League 1, Championship Round - 2. The match kicks off on Sunday 31 March 2024 at 18:30 UTC.
Current Form
AEK Athens FC's overall Super League 1 record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 3.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AEK Athens FC's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 games at OPAP Arena this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at OPAP Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Olympiakos Piraeus have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 8W 0D 2L. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympiakos Piraeus away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.40 vs 2.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
AEK Athens FC — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AEK Athens FC 40% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AEK Athens FC 59% | Olympiakos Piraeus 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 1.70 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 1.374 / defence 0.813 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.153 / defence 0.757. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.360. AEK Athens FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.374 — their λ of 1.70 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence strength of 0.757 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 52 AEK Athens FC games / 52 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 45% | Draw 28% | Olympiakos Piraeus 27%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Olympiakos Piraeus 3.70. AEK Athens FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AEK Athens FC are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AEK Athens FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. This conflicts with form data: AEK Athens FC 30% | Olympiakos Piraeus 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 2 | Venue: OPAP Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Mar 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 45% | Draw 28% | Olympiakos Piraeus 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG AEK Athens FC 1.70 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: AEK Athens FC attack 1.374 / def 0.813 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.153 / def 0.757 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
AEK Athens FC xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 31 March 2024 at OPAP Arena.
What was the final score in AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
AEK Athens FC 1 - 0 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at OPAP Arena.
What competition is AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Championship Round - 2 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives AEK Athens FC a 45% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
AEK Athens FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AEK Athens FC's attack at 1.37x the league average against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (1.15x) against AEK Athens FC's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
45%
2.21
28%
3.57
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
AEK Athens FC xG
Total xG
2.97
1.27
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
18%
5.47
Win to Nil
13%
7.90
5%
20.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.1 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 1.27 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 63 outings, AEK Athens FC have picked up 2.30 PPG on a 44W 13D 6L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for AEK Athens FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form line: 39W 14D 10L from 63 games, 2.08 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-L. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.30 PPG for AEK Athens FC against 2.08 for Olympiakos Piraeus. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, AEK Athens FC have posted 2.48 PPG from 31 outings (24W 5D 2L).
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 17W 9D 5L from 31 away games — 1.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AEK Athens FC are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 2.06 scored and 0.78 conceded. AEK Athens FC's scoring rate against Olympiakos Piraeus's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their games; Olympiakos Piraeus in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AEK Athens FC
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
AEK Athens FC have gone 44W 13D 6L in their last 63 games (2.30 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 39W 14D 10L in their last 63 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AEK Athens FC at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
AEK Athens FC's home record (2.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AEK Athens FC at home: 2.48 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 1.94 PPG.
Have AEK Athens FC or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-1 on 24 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AEK Athens FC have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Olympiakos Piraeus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
AEK Athens FC
2
Draws
6
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, AEK Athens FC have won 2, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when AEK Athens FC 1-1 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AEK Athens FC 32%, Olympiakos Piraeus 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (AEK Athens FC) and 45% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC keep a clean sheet in 64% of their matches; Olympiakos Piraeus in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AEK Athens FC home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AEK Athens FC play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of AEK Athens FC's recent matches and 42% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of AEK Athens FC's recent games and 45% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
AEK Athens FC have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AEK Athens FC edge out Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AEK Athens FC beat Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 at OPAP Arena, Championship Round - 2, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 1.70 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.27 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Olympiakos Piraeus landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.37 / defence 0.81 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.15 / defence 0.76, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 45% | Draw 28% | Olympiakos Piraeus 27%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 59%, Olympiakos Piraeus 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and duly kept one.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AEK Athens FC 2.30 PPG, Olympiakos Piraeus 2.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AEK Athens FC win broke the near-deadlock. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.32 scoring average — below par going forward. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.