Werder Bremen 2-0 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Werder Bremen at 42%, yet in-form FC Augsburg provide a compelling counter-argument — this Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg meet at wohninvest WESERSTADION in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 December 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Werder Bremen (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Werder Bremen have posted 3W 2D 5L at wohninvest WESERSTADION — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Augsburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, FC Augsburg have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. FC Augsburg are 0.70 PPG clear of Werder Bremen in recent Bundesliga fixtures (1.50 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Werder Bremen have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC Augsburg in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Werder Bremen lead 1W to 3W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2023, ended 1–2 with FC Augsburg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Werder Bremen half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
FC Augsburg half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Werder Bremen 64% and FC Augsburg 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Werder Bremen 68% | FC Augsburg 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.83 xG and FC Augsburg 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.961 / defence 1.137 | FC Augsburg attack 1.004 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.859 / away 1.416. Data: 47 Werder Bremen games / 47 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 42% | Draw 26% | FC Augsburg 33%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | FC Augsburg 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Werder Bremen are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Augsburg (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Werder Bremen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.45 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Werder Bremen 60% | FC Augsburg 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: wohninvest WESERSTADION • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Dec 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 42% | Draw 26% | FC Augsburg 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 69% | xG Werder Bremen 1.83 / FC Augsburg 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 0.961 / def 1.137 | FC Augsburg attack 1.004 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.859 / away 1.416 • Poisson stance: Werder Bremen (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.62
FC Augsburg xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg kick off?
Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 9 December 2023 at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg?
Werder Bremen 2 - 0 FC Augsburg.
Where is Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg part of?
Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 42% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Werder Bremen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg?
Record (4 meetings): Werder Bremen 1W | Draws 0 | FC Augsburg 3W.
What form are Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. FC Augsburg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Werder Bremen's attack rating (0.96) and FC Augsburg's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Augsburg's attack (1.00x) against Werder Bremen's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Werder Bremen Win
42%
2.41
26%
3.86
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
3.45
1.62
FC Augsburg xG
2.41
42%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.24
Clean Sheet
20%
5.04
16%
6.26
Win to Nil
8%
12.15
5%
19.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 9.4 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.62 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Werder Bremen come into this having played 47 games, going 13W 8D 26L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-L. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Augsburg sit at 1.09 PPG from 47 outings (13W 12D 22L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Werder Bremen against 1.09 for FC Augsburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Werder Bremen's home form reads 8W 2D 13L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.13 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Augsburg have taken 0.74 points per game from 23 outings (4W 5D 14L).
Attack vs Defence
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.38 scored and 1.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Werder Bremen have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; FC Augsburg in 68%.
Last 47 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 13W 8D 26L in their last 47 games (1.00 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 13W 12D 22L in their last 47 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or FC Augsburg away?
Werder Bremen's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.13 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Werder Bremen won 0-3 on 27 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Werder Bremen have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Werder Bremen
2
Draws
5
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 3, FC Augsburg have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Werder Bremen 1-3 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 61% for Werder Bremen, 74% for FC Augsburg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Werder Bremen and 65% for FC Augsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Werder Bremen's games and 74% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Werder Bremen's matches and 65% of FC Augsburg's.
Do Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
Werder Bremen have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Werder Bremen cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC Augsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Werder Bremen beat FC Augsburg 2-0 at wohninvest WESERSTADION, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.83 xG and FC Augsburg 1.62 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC Augsburg landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.96 / defence 1.14 against FC Augsburg attack 1.00 / defence 1.03, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 42% | Draw 26% | FC Augsburg 33%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 68%, FC Augsburg 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Werder Bremen 1.00 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Werder Bremen win broke the near-deadlock. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.