VfL Wolfsburg 0-0 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VfL Wolfsburg at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VfL Wolfsburg vs Hertha BSC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hertha BSC make the trip to VOLKSWAGEN ARENA to face VfL Wolfsburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Saturday 15 January 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
VfL Wolfsburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfL Wolfsburg at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Hertha BSC have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hertha BSC's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Hertha BSC are 0.50 PPG clear of VfL Wolfsburg in recent Bundesliga fixtures (1.20 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: VfL Wolfsburg 2W, Hertha BSC 0W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 2–1 with VfL Wolfsburg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
VfL Wolfsburg — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Hertha BSC — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfL Wolfsburg 48% versus Hertha BSC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Wolfsburg 52% | Hertha BSC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Wolfsburg 1.69 xG and Hertha BSC 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.753 / defence 1.204 | Hertha BSC attack 0.829 / defence 1.279. League average goals — home 1.760 / away 1.334. VfL Wolfsburg's attack strength of 0.753 is below the league average — the 1.69 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Hertha BSC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.279 — this is suppressing VfL Wolfsburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 VfL Wolfsburg games / 52 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 44% | Draw 27% | Hertha BSC 29%. Fair-value odds: VfL Wolfsburg 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Hertha BSC 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
VfL Wolfsburg dominate the H2H record, yet Hertha BSC are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates VfL Wolfsburg as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hertha BSC (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfL Wolfsburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: VfL Wolfsburg 50% | Hertha BSC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Wolfsburg vs Hertha BSC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: VOLKSWAGEN ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jan 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 44% | Draw 27% | Hertha BSC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG VfL Wolfsburg 1.69 / Hertha BSC 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.753 / def 1.204 | Hertha BSC attack 0.829 / def 1.279 | league avg home 1.760 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: VfL Wolfsburg (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Hertha BSC xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfL Wolfsburg vs Hertha BSC kick off?
VfL Wolfsburg vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 15 January 2022 at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA.
What was the final score in VfL Wolfsburg vs Hertha BSC?
VfL Wolfsburg 0 - 0 Hertha BSC.
Where is VfL Wolfsburg vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA.
What competition is VfL Wolfsburg vs Hertha BSC part of?
VfL Wolfsburg vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Wolfsburg vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives VfL Wolfsburg a 44% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making VfL Wolfsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Wolfsburg vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both VfL Wolfsburg and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and Hertha BSC?
Record (3 meetings): VfL Wolfsburg 2W | Draws 1 | Hertha BSC 0W.
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and Hertha BSC in?
VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Hertha BSC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from VfL Wolfsburg's attack rating (0.75) and Hertha BSC's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hertha BSC's attack (0.83x) against VfL Wolfsburg's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Wolfsburg Win
44%
2.26
27%
3.68
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Total xG
3.03
1.33
Hertha BSC xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
18%
5.44
Win to Nil
12%
8.55
5%
19.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.0 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Wolfsburg vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are VfL Wolfsburg and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 1.33 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Wolfsburg vs Hertha BSC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
VfL Wolfsburg come into this having played 52 games, going 23W 12D 17L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for VfL Wolfsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hertha BSC sit at 1.08 PPG from 52 outings (14W 14D 24L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfL Wolfsburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Hertha BSC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
VfL Wolfsburg's home form reads 13W 5D 8L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.69 PPG return.
Away from home, Hertha BSC have taken 0.85 points per game from 26 outings (5W 7D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfL Wolfsburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
VfL Wolfsburg are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.19 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Defensively: VfL Wolfsburg have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
Hertha BSC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
VfL Wolfsburg have gone 23W 12D 17L in their last 52 games (1.56 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 14W 14D 24L in their last 52 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Wolfsburg at home or Hertha BSC away?
VfL Wolfsburg's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Wolfsburg at home: 1.69 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 0.85 PPG.
Have VfL Wolfsburg or Hertha BSC been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfL Wolfsburg have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Hertha BSC in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 May 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfL Wolfsburg won 0-5 on 24 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Hertha BSC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
VfL Wolfsburg
2
Draws
1
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and Hertha BSC?
From 6 meetings on record, VfL Wolfsburg have won 3, Hertha BSC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VfL Wolfsburg and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 27 May 2023, when VfL Wolfsburg 1-2 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between VfL Wolfsburg and Hertha BSC?
VfL Wolfsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfL Wolfsburg 42%, Hertha BSC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (VfL Wolfsburg) and 58% (Hertha BSC).
On the defensive side: VfL Wolfsburg keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Hertha BSC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Wolfsburg home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfL Wolfsburg play Hertha BSC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of VfL Wolfsburg's recent matches and 58% of Hertha BSC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is VfL Wolfsburg vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of VfL Wolfsburg's recent games and 58% of Hertha BSC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VfL Wolfsburg and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
VfL Wolfsburg have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at VfL Wolfsburg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA, Regular Season - 19, as VfL Wolfsburg and Hertha BSC drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 1.69 xG and Hertha BSC 1.33 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. VfL Wolfsburg fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Hertha BSC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.75 / defence 1.20 against Hertha BSC attack 0.83 / defence 1.28, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 44% | Draw 27% | Hertha BSC 29%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 52%, Hertha BSC 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, VfL Wolfsburg arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.