VfL Wolfsburg 0-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfL Wolfsburg at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach meet at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 14 February 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
VfL Wolfsburg (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 6W 3D 0L this season (9 games, 2.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W W D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Mönchengladbach away from home this season: 3W 4D 2L from 9 away games — 1.44 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
VfL Wolfsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Borussia Mönchengladbach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfL Wolfsburg 55% and Borussia Mönchengladbach 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Wolfsburg 45% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Wolfsburg 1.94 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.220 / defence 0.929 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.064 / defence 1.317. League average goals — home 1.205 / away 1.427. Borussia Mönchengladbach bring a strong defensive rating of 1.317 — this is suppressing VfL Wolfsburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 VfL Wolfsburg games / 20 Borussia Mönchengladbach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 49% | Draw 24% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 27%. Fair-value odds: VfL Wolfsburg 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 3.70. VfL Wolfsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates VfL Wolfsburg as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfL Wolfsburg if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.35 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: VfL Wolfsburg 56% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 78% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: VOLKSWAGEN ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Feb 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 49% | Draw 24% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG VfL Wolfsburg 1.94 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.220 / def 0.929 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.064 / def 1.317 | league avg home 1.205 / away 1.427 • Poisson stance: VfL Wolfsburg (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 14 February 2021 at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA.
What was the final score in VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
VfL Wolfsburg 0 - 0 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Where is VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA.
What competition is VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives VfL Wolfsburg a 49% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making VfL Wolfsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score (BTTS).
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach in?
VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from VfL Wolfsburg's attack rating (1.22) and Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack (1.06x) against VfL Wolfsburg's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Wolfsburg Win
49%
2.05
24%
4.15
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Total xG
3.35
1.41
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
2.05
49%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
14%
6.94
Win to Nil
12%
8.39
4%
25.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 9.6 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 1.41 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
VfL Wolfsburg come into this having played 20 games, going 10W 8D 2L for 1.90 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W. The sample for VfL Wolfsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Borussia Mönchengladbach sit at 1.60 PPG from 20 outings (8W 8D 4L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.90 PPG for VfL Wolfsburg against 1.60 for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
VfL Wolfsburg's home form reads 6W 3D 0L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.90 PPG overall — VfL Wolfsburg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Borussia Mönchengladbach have taken 1.44 points per game from 9 outings (3W 4D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfL Wolfsburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
VfL Wolfsburg are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.85 scored and 1.55 conceded. Borussia Mönchengladbach's attacking output running into VfL Wolfsburg's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach in 80%.
Defensively: VfL Wolfsburg have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
VfL Wolfsburg have gone 10W 8D 2L in their last 20 games (1.90 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 8W 8D 4L in their last 20 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Wolfsburg at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
VfL Wolfsburg's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Wolfsburg at home: 2.33 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 1.44 PPG.
Have VfL Wolfsburg or Borussia Mönchengladbach been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfL Wolfsburg have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Borussia Mönchengladbach won 4-0 on 10 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Borussia Mönchengladbach — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
VfL Wolfsburg
3
Draws
4
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
From 10 meetings on record, VfL Wolfsburg have won 3, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when VfL Wolfsburg 0-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
VfL Wolfsburg see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 56% for VfL Wolfsburg, 78% for Borussia Mönchengladbach — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for VfL Wolfsburg and 78% for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfL Wolfsburg keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Wolfsburg home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfL Wolfsburg play Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of VfL Wolfsburg's games and 78% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of VfL Wolfsburg's matches and 78% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's.
Do VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach tend to score early?
VfL Wolfsburg have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at VfL Wolfsburg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA, Regular Season - 21, as VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 1.94 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.41 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. VfL Wolfsburg fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Borussia Mönchengladbach landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.22 / defence 0.93 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.06 / defence 1.32, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 49% | Draw 24% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 27%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 45%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfL Wolfsburg 1.90 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.