VfB Stuttgart 4-0 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart at 64% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg encounter.

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Full Analysis

MHPArena plays host to VfB Stuttgart versus SC Freiburg in Bundesliga (matchday 18). Kick-off: Saturday 18 January 2025 at 14:30 UK time.

Current Form

VfB Stuttgart's record over their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, VfB Stuttgart have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

SC Freiburg have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, SC Freiburg have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.

Form favours the hosts. VfB Stuttgart's 2.00 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of SC Freiburg's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head sample leans to SC Freiburg, who have 5 wins from 7 H2H matches compared to 2 for the hosts, with 0 draws.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.4 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 24 Aug 2024, ended VfB Stuttgart 1–3 SC Freiburg — a SC Freiburg win.

The H2H data backs the away side. SC Freiburg have won 5 of 7 H2H matches, and at 3.4 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

Trading

VfB Stuttgart half-time and goal-timing data (last 51 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.

SC Freiburg half-time and goal-timing data (last 51 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 61% and SC Freiburg 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VfB Stuttgart 72% | SC Freiburg 67%). Note also that SC Freiburg surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while VfB Stuttgart recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 2.28 xG and SC Freiburg 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.075 / defence 1.022 | SC Freiburg attack 0.766 / defence 1.192. League average goals — home 1.780 / away 1.415. SC Freiburg's attack rating of 0.766 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.11. Data: built from VfB Stuttgart's last 51 games and SC Freiburg's last 51.

Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 64% | Draw 19% | SC Freiburg 17%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 1.57 | Draw 5.20 | SC Freiburg 5.85. The model has a clear lean to VfB Stuttgart (64%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (2.28 / 1.11) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record in our data (5 wins to 2), but VfB Stuttgart carry stronger current form — do not let the head-to-head record alone dictate your assessment.

On the Poisson output, VfB Stuttgart are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.39 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (VfB Stuttgart's last 10 home games and SC Freiburg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: VfB Stuttgart 70% (last 10 home games) | SC Freiburg 50% (last 10 away games).

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