VfB Stuttgart 4-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart at 63% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach encounter.

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Match Analysis

VfB Stuttgart host Borussia Mönchengladbach at Stuttgart Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 34). Kick-off is Saturday 18 May 2024 at 15:30 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, VfB Stuttgart stand at 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

VfB Stuttgart's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 3D 0L (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Borussia Mönchengladbach have recorded 1W 6D 3L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

On the road, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

VfB Stuttgart are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.40 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 80% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's (from VfB Stuttgart's last 10 home games and Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, VfB Stuttgart have won 2, Borussia Mönchengladbach 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 14 Jan 2024, ended VfB Stuttgart 1–3 Borussia Mönchengladbach — a Borussia Mönchengladbach win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

VfB Stuttgart in-play tendencies (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play tendencies (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 64% and Borussia Mönchengladbach 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VfB Stuttgart 69% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 69%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 2.65 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.385 / defence 0.831 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.140 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.446. VfB Stuttgart carry an above-average attack rating of 1.385 — their 2.65 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from VfB Stuttgart's last 67 games and Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 67.

Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 63% | Draw 20% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 16%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 1.58 | Draw 4.95 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 6.09. The model has a clear lean to VfB Stuttgart (63%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS Yes probability 71% | Total xG 4.02. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.02 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% — both xG figures (2.65 / 1.37) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, VfB Stuttgart are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 4.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 77% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (VfB Stuttgart's last 10 home games and Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 71%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: VfB Stuttgart 60% (last 10 home games) | Borussia Mönchengladbach 80% (last 10 away games).

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