VfB Stuttgart 3-4 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bayer Leverkusen (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as VfB Stuttgart face Bayer Leverkusen.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bayer Leverkusen make the trip to MHPArena to face VfB Stuttgart in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Sunday 16 March 2025 at 18:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
VfB Stuttgart have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at MHPArena, VfB Stuttgart have gone 5W 0D 5L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bayer Leverkusen (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: D D W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayer Leverkusen away from home this season: 5W 5D 0L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bayer Leverkusen are 0.70 PPG clear of VfB Stuttgart in recent Bundesliga fixtures (2.10 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — VfB Stuttgart register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Bayer Leverkusen in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Across the last 7 meetings, Bayer Leverkusen have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to VfB Stuttgart's 0, with 4 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bayer Leverkusen have won 3 of 7 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
VfB Stuttgart goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Bayer Leverkusen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 63% and Bayer Leverkusen 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VfB Stuttgart 73% | Bayer Leverkusen 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.26 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.121 / defence 1.088 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.285 / defence 0.730. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.399. Bayer Leverkusen's defence strength of 0.730 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Bayer Leverkusen have an above-average attack strength of 1.285 — the away xG of 1.96 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 59 VfB Stuttgart games / 59 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 24% | Draw 23% | Bayer Leverkusen 53%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 4.17 | Draw 4.35 | Bayer Leverkusen 1.89. Bayer Leverkusen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.26 / 1.96) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bayer Leverkusen at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.22 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 70% | Bayer Leverkusen 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: MHPArena • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Mar 2025, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 24% | Draw 23% | Bayer Leverkusen 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.26 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.96 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.121 / def 1.088 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.285 / def 0.730 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.96
Bayer Leverkusen xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 16 March 2025 at MHPArena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen?
VfB Stuttgart 3 - 4 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at MHPArena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 24% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 53% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen?
Record (7 meetings): VfB Stuttgart 0W | Draws 4 | Bayer Leverkusen 3W.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from VfB Stuttgart's attack rating (1.12) and Bayer Leverkusen's defence rating (0.73), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bayer Leverkusen's attack (1.28x) against VfB Stuttgart's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.96.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
24%
4.22
23%
4.27
53%
1.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
3.22
1.96
Bayer Leverkusen xG
4.22
24%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
1.89
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
14%
7.08
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
3%
29.85
15%
6.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.96 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 59 outings, VfB Stuttgart have picked up 1.86 PPG on a 33W 11D 15L record — W-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayer Leverkusen's form line: 43W 14D 2L from 59 games, 2.42 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-L. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bayer Leverkusen are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against VfB Stuttgart.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, VfB Stuttgart have posted 2.03 PPG from 29 outings (18W 5D 6L).
On the road, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 21W 8D 0L from 29 away games — 2.45 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 2.44 scored and 0.92 conceded. VfB Stuttgart's scoring rate against Bayer Leverkusen's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Bayer Leverkusen in 61%.
Defensively: Bayer Leverkusen in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 33W 11D 15L in their last 59 games (1.86 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 43W 14D 2L in their last 59 (2.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Bayer Leverkusen's away record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 2.03 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 2.45 PPG.
Have VfB Stuttgart or Bayer Leverkusen been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfB Stuttgart have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Bayer Leverkusen in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: VfB Stuttgart have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won 1-4 on 10 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfB Stuttgart have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bayer Leverkusen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
VfB Stuttgart
4
Draws
4
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 2, Bayer Leverkusen have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 3-1 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 69% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 69% for VfB Stuttgart, 62% for Bayer Leverkusen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for VfB Stuttgart and 62% for Bayer Leverkusen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bayer Leverkusen in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play Bayer Leverkusen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 62% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 62% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bayer Leverkusen edge out VfB Stuttgart 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen beat VfB Stuttgart 3-4 at MHPArena, Regular Season - 26, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.26 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.96 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bayer Leverkusen outscored their 1.96 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.12 / defence 1.09 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.28 / defence 0.73, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 24% | Draw 23% | Bayer Leverkusen 53%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 73%, Bayer Leverkusen 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 1.86. The form guide was vindicated by the result. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.34 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.