Union Berlin 4-4 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 40%, yet in-form Union Berlin provide a compelling counter-argument — this Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart meet at Stadion An der Alten Försterei in Bundesliga (matchday 30). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 April 2025 at 18:30 UK time.
Current Form
Union Berlin's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Union Berlin have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
VfB Stuttgart (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
VfB Stuttgart's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Union Berlin's 1.50 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of VfB Stuttgart's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, VfB Stuttgart edge it 3 wins to 2, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Dec 2024, ended Union Berlin 2–3 VfB Stuttgart — a VfB Stuttgart win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Union Berlin half-time and goal-timing data (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
VfB Stuttgart half-time and goal-timing data (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 41% versus VfB Stuttgart 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 46% | VfB Stuttgart 73%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Union Berlin surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while VfB Stuttgart have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 0.92 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.730 / defence 0.766 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.036 / defence 0.858. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.441. Union Berlin's attack rating of 0.730 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.92. Union Berlin have a tight defence (rating 0.766), which is pulling VfB Stuttgart's projected output down. Data: built from Union Berlin's last 63 games and VfB Stuttgart's last 63.
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 29% | Draw 31% | VfB Stuttgart 40%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 3.49 | Draw 3.19 | VfB Stuttgart 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfB Stuttgart at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Union Berlin (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.07 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Union Berlin's last 10 home games and VfB Stuttgart's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Union Berlin 50% (last 10 home games) | VfB Stuttgart 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 30 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 19 April 2025 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 29% | Draw 31% | VfB Stuttgart 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Union Berlin 0.92 / VfB Stuttgart 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.730 / def 0.766 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.036 / def 0.858 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.441 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.14
VfB Stuttgart xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart FAQs
What time does Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Saturday 19 April 2025 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart?
Union Berlin 4 - 4 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 30) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 29% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Union Berlin's attack rating (0.73) and VfB Stuttgart's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — VfB Stuttgart's attack (1.04x) against Union Berlin's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from Union Berlin's last 63 games and VfB Stuttgart's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
29%
3.49
31%
3.19
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.07
1.14
VfB Stuttgart xG
3.49
29%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
9%
10.93
16%
6.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 14.5 | 8.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.14 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Union Berlin's recent record stands at 18W 14D 31L from 63 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-D in the last five.
VfB Stuttgart, meanwhile, have gone 34W 11D 18L across 63 games — 1.79 PPG, with D-L-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours VfB Stuttgart by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Union Berlin heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Union Berlin have managed 12W 7D 12L from their last 31 home games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VfB Stuttgart's away record stands at 15W 6D 10L across their last 31 away games, a 1.65 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union Berlin are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 2.06 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart in 62%.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Current Season
VfB Stuttgart
Current Season
Union Berlin (Home) vs VfB Stuttgart (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Union Berlin
Current Season
VfB Stuttgart
Current Season
❓ Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart Form FAQs
What form are Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 18W 14D 31L in their last 63 games (1.08 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 34W 11D 18L in their last 63 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
VfB Stuttgart's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.39 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 18 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union Berlin won Union Berlin 3-0 VfB Stuttgart on 1 Apr 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Berlin have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against VfB Stuttgart — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Union Berlin
4
Draws
3
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Union Berlin have won 3, VfB Stuttgart have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 January 2026: VfB Stuttgart 1-1 Union Berlin.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 52%, VfB Stuttgart 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Union Berlin) and 68% (VfB Stuttgart). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 16% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Union Berlin's recent matches and 55% of VfB Stuttgart's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Union Berlin's matches and 68% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Union Berlin's recent matches and 61% of VfB Stuttgart's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart share the spoils in a 4-4 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart finished level at 4-4 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 30, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 0.92 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.14 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 4-4 for 8 actual goals. Union Berlin beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. VfB Stuttgart outscored their 1.14 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.73 / defence 0.77 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.04 / defence 0.86, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 29% | Draw 31% | VfB Stuttgart 40%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 46%, VfB Stuttgart 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, VfB Stuttgart arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Union Berlin (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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