Union Berlin 1-0 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Berlin at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union Berlin vs SV Darmstadt 98 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 19 as Union Berlin welcome SV Darmstadt 98 to Stadion An der Alten Försterei. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 January 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Union Berlin — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Union Berlin have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Union Berlin are significantly better at Stadion An der Alten Försterei than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SV Darmstadt 98 stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Darmstadt 98's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Union Berlin) versus 0.40 (SV Darmstadt 98). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Union Berlin, 0 for SV Darmstadt 98 and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2023, ended 4–1 with Union Berlin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Union Berlin trading profile (51 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
SV Darmstadt 98 trading profile (51 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 45% versus SV Darmstadt 98 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 53% | SV Darmstadt 98 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 2.16 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.868 / defence 1.076 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.990 / defence 1.430. League average goals — home 1.738 / away 1.298. SV Darmstadt 98 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.430 — this is suppressing Union Berlin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Union Berlin games / 18 SV Darmstadt 98 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 54% | Draw 23% | SV Darmstadt 98 23%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | SV Darmstadt 98 4.35. Union Berlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.16 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Union Berlin as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union Berlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.54 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 40% | SV Darmstadt 98 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jan 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 54% | Draw 23% | SV Darmstadt 98 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 67% | xG Union Berlin 2.16 / SV Darmstadt 98 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.868 / def 1.076 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.990 / def 1.430 | league avg home 1.738 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.16
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.38
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
Union Berlin vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 28 January 2024 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Union Berlin 1 - 0 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is Union Berlin vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
Union Berlin vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 54% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Union Berlin and SV Darmstadt 98 will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and SV Darmstadt 98?
Record (1 meetings): Union Berlin 1W | Draws 0 | SV Darmstadt 98 0W.
What form are Union Berlin and SV Darmstadt 98 in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Union Berlin's attack rating (0.87) and SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating (1.43), the model arrives at 2.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SV Darmstadt 98's attack versus Union Berlin's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
54%
1.85
23%
4.41
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 0
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.16
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
3.54
1.38
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.06
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
12%
8.65
Win to Nil
14%
7.38
3%
37.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 2.16 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.38 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union Berlin come into this having played 51 games, going 22W 10D 19L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SV Darmstadt 98 sit at 1.53 PPG from 51 outings (22W 12D 17L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union Berlin on 1.49 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Union Berlin's home form reads 13W 7D 4L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.92 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.49 PPG overall — Union Berlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, SV Darmstadt 98 have taken 1.42 points per game from 24 outings (10W 4D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Union Berlin are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 1.41 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 22W 10D 19L in their last 51 games (1.49 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 22W 12D 17L in their last 51 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
Union Berlin's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.92 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Union Berlin
0
Draws
0
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and SV Darmstadt 98?
From 2 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 2, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2024, when Union Berlin 1-0 SV Darmstadt 98.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and SV Darmstadt 98?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
SV Darmstadt 98 see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 46%, SV Darmstadt 98 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Union Berlin) and 62% (SV Darmstadt 98). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Union Berlin have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play SV Darmstadt 98?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Union Berlin's recent matches and 54% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union Berlin vs SV Darmstadt 98 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Union Berlin's matches and 62% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do Union Berlin and SV Darmstadt 98 tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union Berlin edge out SV Darmstadt 98 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat SV Darmstadt 98 1-0 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 2.16 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.38 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Union Berlin fell 1.2 short of their projected output. SV Darmstadt 98 landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.87 / defence 1.08 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.99 / defence 1.43, drawn from 51/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 54% | Draw 23% | SV Darmstadt 98 23%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 53%, SV Darmstadt 98 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.49 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Berlin win broke the near-deadlock. Union Berlin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.