Union Berlin 1-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Berlin at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Borussia Mönchengladbach travel to Stadion An der Alten Försterei to take on Union Berlin. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 January 2021, 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Union Berlin — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Union Berlin have posted 4W 4D 1L at Stadion An der Alten Försterei — 1.78 PPG. They are averaging 2.22 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 2L across 8 road games this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.12 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Borussia Mönchengladbach — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Union Berlin register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 75% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Union Berlin in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union Berlin 72% and Borussia Mönchengladbach 78% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 61% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 2.18 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 1.266 / defence 0.986 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.087 / defence 1.420. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.480. Union Berlin carry an above-average attack strength of 1.266 — their λ of 2.18 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Borussia Mönchengladbach bring a strong defensive rating of 1.420 — this is suppressing Union Berlin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Union Berlin games / 18 Borussia Mönchengladbach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 51% | Draw 21% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 28%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 1.96 | Draw 4.76 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 3.57. Union Berlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.76. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.76 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.18 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union Berlin are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Borussia Mönchengladbach (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 71%. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 67% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jan 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 51% | Draw 21% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 71% | xG Union Berlin 2.18 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 1.266 / def 0.986 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.087 / def 1.420 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.480 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 30 January 2021 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Union Berlin 1 - 1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Where is Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 51% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 28% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Union Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Union Berlin's attack at 1.27x the league average against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 2.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack versus Union Berlin's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
51%
1.97
21%
4.66
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
3.76
1.59
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.44
Clean Sheet
20%
4.88
11%
8.82
Win to Nil
10%
9.60
3%
31.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 8.0 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.59 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 3.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Union Berlin's recent record stands at 7W 7D 4L from 18 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Mönchengladbach, meanwhile, have gone 8W 7D 3L across 18 games — 1.72 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union Berlin on 1.56 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Union Berlin have managed 4W 4D 0L from 8 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.56 PPG overall — Union Berlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's away record stands at 3W 3D 2L across 8 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Union Berlin are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.94 scored and 1.56 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Union Berlin have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games; Borussia Mönchengladbach in 78%.
Last 18 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 7W 7D 4L in their last 18 games (1.56 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 8W 7D 3L in their last 18 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
Union Berlin's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 2.00 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Union Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Union Berlin's record when hosting Borussia Mönchengladbach specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Union Berlin
1
Draws
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 6, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-0 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Union Berlin at 62%, Borussia Mönchengladbach at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Union Berlin and 88% for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Union Berlin's games and 75% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Union Berlin's matches and 88% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's.
Do Union Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 19, as Union Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 2.18 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.59 xG, a combined 3.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Union Berlin fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 1.27 / defence 0.99 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.09 / defence 1.42, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 51% | Draw 21% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 28%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 61%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.56 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.