Union Berlin 1-1 1899 Hoffenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Berlin at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 23 as Union Berlin welcome 1899 Hoffenheim to Stadion An der Alten Försterei. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 February 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Union Berlin have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Berlin's form when playing at home: 4W 6D 0L across 10 games at Stadion An der Alten Försterei this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1899 Hoffenheim stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for 1899 Hoffenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, 1899 Hoffenheim have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Union Berlin 1.50 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Union Berlin register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, 1899 Hoffenheim in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Union Berlin trading profile (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
1899 Hoffenheim trading profile (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union Berlin 64% and 1899 Hoffenheim 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 50% | 1899 Hoffenheim 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.76 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.977 / defence 0.927 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.846 / defence 1.478. League average goals — home 1.222 / away 1.421. 1899 Hoffenheim bring a strong defensive rating of 1.478 — this is suppressing Union Berlin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Union Berlin games / 22 1899 Hoffenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 52% | Draw 25% | 1899 Hoffenheim 23%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | 1899 Hoffenheim 4.35. Union Berlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union Berlin at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union Berlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 60% | 1899 Hoffenheim 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Feb 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 52% | Draw 25% | 1899 Hoffenheim 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Union Berlin 1.76 / 1899 Hoffenheim 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.977 / def 0.927 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.846 / def 1.478 | league avg home 1.222 / away 1.421 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.11
1899 Hoffenheim xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim kick off?
Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 28 February 2021 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Union Berlin 1 - 1 1899 Hoffenheim.
Where is Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim part of?
Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 52% chance of winning, 1899 Hoffenheim a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Union Berlin and 1899 Hoffenheim will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and 1899 Hoffenheim?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union Berlin and 1899 Hoffenheim in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. 1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Union Berlin's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against 1899 Hoffenheim's defensive record (1.48x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. The same calculation in reverse, 1899 Hoffenheim's attack versus Union Berlin's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
52%
1.94
25%
3.93
23%
4.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.88
1.11
1899 Hoffenheim xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
4.35
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
17%
5.83
Win to Nil
17%
5.92
4%
25.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.1 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and 1899 Hoffenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.11 for 1899 Hoffenheim, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Union Berlin come into this having played 22 games, going 8W 9D 5L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-W. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, 1899 Hoffenheim sit at 1.18 PPG from 22 outings (7W 5D 10L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for 1899 Hoffenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union Berlin on 1.50 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Union Berlin's home form reads 4W 6D 1L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, 1899 Hoffenheim have taken 1.09 points per game from 11 outings (3W 3D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Union Berlin are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; 1899 Hoffenheim are on 1.64 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Berlin have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; 1899 Hoffenheim in 68%.
Last 22 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and 1899 Hoffenheim in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 8W 9D 5L in their last 22 games (1.50 PPG), while 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 7W 5D 10L in their last 22 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or 1899 Hoffenheim away?
Union Berlin's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.64 PPG; 1899 Hoffenheim away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Union Berlin and 1899 Hoffenheim runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: 1899 Hoffenheim have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Feb 2025, when Union Berlin won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union Berlin's record when hosting 1899 Hoffenheim specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Union Berlin
1
Draws
4
1899 Hoffenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and 1899 Hoffenheim?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 5, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and 1899 Hoffenheim last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when 1899 Hoffenheim 3-1 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and 1899 Hoffenheim?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Union Berlin at 64%, 1899 Hoffenheim at 82%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Union Berlin and 82% for 1899 Hoffenheim. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / 1899 Hoffenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play 1899 Hoffenheim?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Union Berlin's games and 82% of 1899 Hoffenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Union Berlin's matches and 82% of 1899 Hoffenheim's.
Do Union Berlin and 1899 Hoffenheim tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, 1899 Hoffenheim in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union Berlin and 1899 Hoffenheim share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 23, as Union Berlin and 1899 Hoffenheim drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.76 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.11 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.98 / defence 0.93 against 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.85 / defence 1.48, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 52% | Draw 25% | 1899 Hoffenheim 23%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 50%, 1899 Hoffenheim 77%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.50 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.