Union Berlin 1-0 1. FC Köln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union Berlin at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln meet at Stadion An der Alten Försterei in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Friday 1 April 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Union Berlin have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Berlin's home record at Stadion An der Alten Försterei: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Union Berlin are significantly better at Stadion An der Alten Försterei than their overall form suggests.
1. FC Köln's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Köln's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Union Berlin, 1.50 for 1. FC Köln — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Union Berlin 2W, 1. FC Köln 0W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Union Berlin — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
1. FC Köln — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union Berlin 62% and 1. FC Köln 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 51% | 1. FC Köln 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.46 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.920 / defence 0.961 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.996 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.687 / away 1.310. Data: 61 Union Berlin games / 61 1. FC Köln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 41% | Draw 28% | 1. FC Köln 31%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | 1. FC Köln 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union Berlin at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union Berlin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 50% | 1. FC Köln 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Friday 1 Apr 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 41% | Draw 28% | 1. FC Köln 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Union Berlin 1.46 / 1. FC Köln 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.920 / def 0.961 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.996 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.687 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.25
1. FC Köln xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln kick off?
Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 1 April 2022 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln?
Union Berlin 1 - 0 1. FC Köln.
Where is Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln part of?
Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 41% chance of winning, 1. FC Köln a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln?
Record (3 meetings): Union Berlin 2W | Draws 1 | 1. FC Köln 0W.
What form are Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. 1. FC Köln (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Union Berlin's attack rating (0.92) and 1. FC Köln's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — 1. FC Köln's attack (1.00x) against Union Berlin's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
41%
2.45
28%
3.62
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.71
1.25
1. FC Köln xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
29%
3.51
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
12%
8.58
7%
13.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.1 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.25 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Union Berlin's recent record stands at 22W 22D 17L from 61 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Köln, meanwhile, have gone 19W 19D 23L across 61 games — 1.25 PPG, with W-D-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for 1. FC Köln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Union Berlin against 1.25 for 1. FC Köln. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Union Berlin have managed 15W 12D 3L from 30 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — Union Berlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
1. FC Köln's away record stands at 9W 10D 11L across 30 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union Berlin are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Köln are on 1.23 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Berlin have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; 1. FC Köln in 62%.
Last 61 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
1. FC Köln
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 22W 22D 17L in their last 61 games (1.44 PPG), while 1. FC Köln have gone 19W 19D 23L in their last 61 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or 1. FC Köln away?
Union Berlin's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.90 PPG; 1. FC Köln away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Berlin have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Köln — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Union Berlin
3
Draws
1
1. FC Köln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 6, 1. FC Köln have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Union Berlin 2-2 1. FC Köln.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Union Berlin, 63% for 1. FC Köln — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Union Berlin) and 53% (1. FC Köln).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Köln in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / 1. FC Köln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play 1. FC Köln?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Union Berlin's games and 63% of 1. FC Köln's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Union Berlin's recent games and 53% of 1. FC Köln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, 1. FC Köln in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union Berlin edge out 1. FC Köln 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat 1. FC Köln 1-0 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 28, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.46 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.25 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. 1. FC Köln landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.92 / defence 0.96 against 1. FC Köln attack 1.00 / defence 0.94, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 41% | Draw 28% | 1. FC Köln 31%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 51%, 1. FC Köln 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
1. FC Köln's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.44 PPG, 1. FC Köln 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Berlin win broke the near-deadlock. Union Berlin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.