SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-0 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union Berlin at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Union Berlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Union Berlin meet at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 December 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's overall Bundesliga record this term: 0W 0D 10L from 10 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 3.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer: 0W 1D 5L from 6 Bundesliga appearances (0.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Union Berlin have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Union Berlin have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Union Berlin arrive in superior form — a 1.70 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SpVgg Greuther Fürth have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Union Berlin in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
SpVgg Greuther Fürth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
Union Berlin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 71% and Union Berlin 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 79% | Union Berlin 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.37 xG and Union Berlin 2.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.765 / defence 1.572 | Union Berlin attack 1.053 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.742 / away 1.356. SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack strength of 0.765 is below the league average — the 1.37 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 14 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 48 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 21% | Draw 24% | Union Berlin 55%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4.76 | Draw 4.17 | Union Berlin 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Union Berlin (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.61. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.61 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.37 / 2.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union Berlin at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.61 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 67% | Union Berlin 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Dec 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 21% | Draw 24% | Union Berlin 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 69% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.37 / Union Berlin 2.24 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.765 / def 1.572 | Union Berlin attack 1.053 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.742 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
2.24
Union Berlin xG
69%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Union Berlin kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Union Berlin kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 12 December 2021 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Union Berlin?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1 - 0 Union Berlin.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Union Berlin part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 21% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 55% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Union Berlin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Union Berlin in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 0W-0D-10L in 10 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 3.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Union Berlin (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Union Berlin's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. Flip it around — Union Berlin's attack (1.05x) against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence (1.57x) — and the away total comes out at 2.24.
These ratings are built from 14/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 1-3 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
21%
4.78
24%
4.22
55%
1.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
1 – 3
7.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
3.61
2.24
Union Berlin xG
4.78
21%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
1.81
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.18
Clean Sheet
11%
9.43
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
2%
45.06
14%
7.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 6.0 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.7 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 2.24 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 3.61.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Union Berlin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SpVgg Greuther Fürth come into this having played 14 games, going 0W 1D 13L for 0.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Union Berlin sit at 1.64 PPG from 14 outings (6W 5D 3L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union Berlin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.57 PPG clear of SpVgg Greuther Fürth — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home form reads 0W 1D 5L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Union Berlin have taken 1.00 points per game from 6 outings (1W 3D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.64 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union Berlin's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 3.29 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.57 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Union Berlin in 71%.
Last 14 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
Union Berlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 0W 1D 13L in their last 14 games (0.07 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 6W 5D 3L in their last 14 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or Union Berlin away?
Union Berlin's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 0.17 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1
Draws
0
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Union Berlin?
From 2 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 1, Union Berlin have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2022, when Union Berlin 1-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Union Berlin?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 100% for Union Berlin — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 83% for Union Berlin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play Union Berlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's games and 100% of Union Berlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's matches and 83% of Union Berlin's.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Union Berlin tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SpVgg Greuther Fürth defy the odds to beat Union Berlin 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat Union Berlin 1-0 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.37 xG and Union Berlin 2.24 xG, a combined 3.61. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Union Berlin landed 2.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.77 / defence 1.57 against Union Berlin attack 1.05 / defence 1.03, drawn from 14/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 21% | Draw 24% | Union Berlin 55%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a SpVgg Greuther Fürth win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 79%, Union Berlin 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Union Berlin's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Union Berlin arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.07. Form was overturned, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.