SC Freiburg 3-1 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart encounter.

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Full Analysis

Europa-Park Stadion plays host to SC Freiburg versus VfB Stuttgart in Bundesliga (matchday 1). Kick-off: Saturday 24 August 2024 at 15:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

SC Freiburg have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

SC Freiburg's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

VfB Stuttgart (all games): 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 — 2.30 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

On the road, VfB Stuttgart have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. VfB Stuttgart are 1.10 PPG clear of SC Freiburg over their recent games (2.30 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from SC Freiburg's last 10 home games and VfB Stuttgart's last 10 away games) — SC Freiburg have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, VfB Stuttgart in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 4 wins for SC Freiburg, 2 for VfB Stuttgart and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 3 Feb 2024, ended SC Freiburg 1–3 VfB Stuttgart — a VfB Stuttgart win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

SC Freiburg — key trading statistics (last 34 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

VfB Stuttgart — key trading statistics (last 34 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Freiburg 62% versus VfB Stuttgart 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SC Freiburg 65% | VfB Stuttgart 74%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.51 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 0.945 / defence 1.083 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.026 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.792 / away 1.476. Data: built from SC Freiburg's last 34 games and VfB Stuttgart's last 34. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 33% | Draw 27% | VfB Stuttgart 39%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 2.99 | Draw 3.65 | VfB Stuttgart 2.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.51 / 1.64) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, VfB Stuttgart are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (SC Freiburg's last 10 home games and VfB Stuttgart's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SC Freiburg 90% (last 10 home games) | VfB Stuttgart 60% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (SC Freiburg 34 games, VfB Stuttgart 34) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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