SC Freiburg 0-0 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates SC Freiburg at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

SC Freiburg and Union Berlin meet at Europa-Park Stadion in Bundesliga (matchday 17). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 January 2024 at 14:30 UK time.

Form

SC Freiburg (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, SC Freiburg have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — SC Freiburg are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Union Berlin have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Union Berlin away from home: 2W 0D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.

The form ledger tips toward SC Freiburg. A 0.70 PPG lead over Union Berlin (1.40 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Union Berlin edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 13 May 2023, ended SC Freiburg 2–4 Union Berlin — a Union Berlin win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

SC Freiburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).

Union Berlin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Freiburg 51% versus Union Berlin 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 51% | Union Berlin 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 2.08 xG and Union Berlin 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 0.922 / defence 0.975 | Union Berlin attack 0.779 / defence 1.198. League average goals — home 1.888 / away 1.291. Union Berlin's attack rating of 0.779 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.98. Data: built from SC Freiburg's last 50 games and Union Berlin's last 49.

Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 61% | Draw 23% | Union Berlin 15%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 1.63 | Draw 4.28 | Union Berlin 6.52. The model has a clear lean to SC Freiburg (61%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, SC Freiburg are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (SC Freiburg's last 10 home games and Union Berlin's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 5.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: SC Freiburg 40% (last 10 home games) | Union Berlin 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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