SC Freiburg 0-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SC Freiburg host Borussia Mönchengladbach at Europa-Park Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 September 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Freiburg have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SC Freiburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SC Freiburg's home record at Europa-Park Stadion: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Borussia Mönchengladbach — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Borussia Mönchengladbach have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — SC Freiburg at 1.90 PPG versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SC Freiburg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, SC Freiburg have won 1, Borussia Mönchengladbach 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2022, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
SC Freiburg in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Freiburg 62% and Borussia Mönchengladbach 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 64% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.41 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 0.975 / defence 1.042 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.933 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.572. Data: 39 SC Freiburg games / 39 Borussia Mönchengladbach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 35% | Draw 25% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 40%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Borussia Mönchengladbach at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Mönchengladbach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 60% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Europa-Park Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Sep 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 35% | Draw 25% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG SC Freiburg 1.41 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 0.975 / def 1.042 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.933 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.572 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 11 September 2022 at Europa-Park Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
SC Freiburg 0 - 0 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Where is SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 35% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both SC Freiburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Record (2 meetings): SC Freiburg 1W | Draws 1 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 0W.
What form are SC Freiburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
SC Freiburg's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack versus SC Freiburg's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
35%
2.85
25%
4.07
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
2.93
1.53
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
2.85
35%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
22%
4.60
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
8%
13.13
10%
10.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.1 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.4 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.0 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.53 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 39 outings, SC Freiburg have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 19W 10D 10L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for SC Freiburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form line: 14W 11D 14L from 39 games, 1.36 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Freiburg on 1.72 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, SC Freiburg have posted 1.68 PPG from 19 outings (9W 5D 5L).
On the road, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 4W 7D 8L from 19 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.56 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Freiburg have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Borussia Mönchengladbach in 69%.
Last 39 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Early Season
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 19W 10D 10L in their last 39 games (1.72 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 14W 11D 14L in their last 39 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.68 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 1.00 PPG.
Have SC Freiburg or Borussia Mönchengladbach been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Dec 2021, when SC Freiburg won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Freiburg's record when hosting Borussia Mönchengladbach specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
SC Freiburg
5
Draws
0
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 5, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when SC Freiburg 2-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 32% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SC Freiburg at 68%, Borussia Mönchengladbach at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for SC Freiburg and 53% for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of SC Freiburg's games and 68% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of SC Freiburg's matches and 53% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's.
Do SC Freiburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at SC Freiburg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Europa-Park Stadion, Regular Season - 6, as SC Freiburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.41 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.53 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. SC Freiburg fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Borussia Mönchengladbach landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 0.97 / defence 1.04 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.93 / defence 1.03, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 35% | Draw 25% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 40%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 64%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.72 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.